[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051250
SWODY1
SPC AC 051249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
MIA AGR 45 NW ORL 20 NE GNV 15 NE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 40 W TCS 35
WNW FLG 20 NE TRM 35 NNW SAN ...CONT... 35 NW SFO 35 WSW RBL 25 SSW
MFR 20 NW EUG 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 20 NE 3HT 10 S GCC 10 E
PIR 30 W RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 S CWA 15 W LWD 20 SSW EMP 15 NNW
OKC 30 ESE SPS 15 ENE SEP 55 S BWD 20 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 70 SW SEM
30 SW HSV 45 SSE BNA 30 SSW CSV 35 ENE RMG 40 N AGS 15 S SOP 20 E
ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO ID.  A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING INTO CA.  SEVERAL AREAS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SEE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER COOL/STABLE FOR EARLY MAY.

...FL/GA...
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN GA TODAY.  12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J/KG.  ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING NORTH FL AND SOUTHERN GA THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RISK OF
HAIL.  IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
PENINSULA BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY.  WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
FOCUS STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.  THIS
AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. 

...SD/MN...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. STRONG SSWLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE 50S
ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SD/MN.  MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION AND MODEST INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL NEAR/AFTER SUNSET.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL.  LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING.  PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NM AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING.  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS.

...SOUTHERN CA...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO CA TODAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AFFECTING THE AREA.  POCKETS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF HAIL.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.