[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050555
SWODY1
SPC AC 050554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
FMY AGR 35 N MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO 35 WSW RBL
25 SSW MFR 20 NW EUG 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 20 NE 3HT 10 S
GCC 10 E PIR 30 W RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 S CWA 15 W LWD 20 SSW
EMP 15 NNW OKC 30 ESE SPS 15 ENE SEP 55 S BWD 20 NW DRT ...CONT...
40 W ELP 40 W TCS 35 WNW FLG 20 NE TRM 35 NNW SAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 70 SW SEM
30 SW HSV 45 SSE BNA 30 SSW CSV 35 ENE RMG 40 N AGS 15 S SOP 20 E
ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE SRN FL PEN...

MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S. WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  LEAD TROUGH MAY SHARPEN SOME AS IT
CONTINUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN GULF STATES.  IN ITS WAKE...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MUCH
OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS BROAD UPSTREAM TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.

FARTHER NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL REMAIN LESS AMPLIFIED.  HOWEVER...
AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/YUKON/EASTERN ALASKA...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION.

...FLORIDA...
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
BENEATH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH.  ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
DAYBREAK...WHEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
INLAND AREAS SHOULD COMMENCE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER... MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN PENINSULA
AREAS.

CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA BY MID
DAY COULD PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ...WHILE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY EVOLVES ON EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...SOUTH
OF MELBOURNE INTO THE MIAMI AREA.  SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION
IN STRONGER STORMS.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED RISK FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
70F...WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000
J/KG.

...PLAINS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO HAMPER RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS.  MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
ALONG/WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS...BUT CAPPING WILL INCREASE BENEATH
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  

PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAIRLY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WHEN A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
SLOWER TO END AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.  MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE WEAKENED BY TAIL END OF DIGGING
CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  WHILE LOW MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIMIT CAPE AND STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS...ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING
SEVERE LIMITS IN STRONGEST CELLS.

...CALIFORNIA...
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
 ALTHOUGH COOLING ALOFT IS NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...MAY COMPENSATE SUFFICIENTLY FOR CAPE TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 500 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
 MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHEAR PROFILES
COULD BECOME LOCALLY SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR.. 05/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.