[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050051
SWODY1
SPC AC 050049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT TVF AXN OTG
OMA RSL GCK 25 NNW EHA 45 S CVS 25 NNE CNM 10 SSE CNM 30 SE GDP 25 W
FST 30 SSE BGS ABI 10 WSW MWL 30 SE DAL 20 SSE ACT 40 S BWD JCT 70
ENE P07 40 NE P07 40 SE P07 ...CONT... ELP TCS 10 ESE U17 40 N BCE
MLF 40 SSE ELY U31 10 N LOL 60 NE SVE 30 S MFR EUG SLE 15 ENE OLM 35
ENE CLM ...CONT... 35 NNE 4OM PUW 60 NNW SUN JAC RIW 10 NW LAR CYS
15 N AIA RAP 4BQ SDY 70 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PNS MCN AGS 20
SE CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FLORIDA...
MUCH OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS
BEEN STABILIZED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. MOST PROMINENT COLD POOL
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...AND AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE AND MELBOURNE.  THIS IS SOUTH OF WEAK/WEAKENING SURFACE
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER...WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONT AND ACROSS THE
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  AS THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
ADVECTION/ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF EASTERN GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
...WITH 70F DEW POINTS...ABOVE COLD POOLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION OVER INLAND AREAS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEVERE
RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...WITH STRONGER CELLS.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO PLAINS...
DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MOST PROMINENT FORCING FOR MUCH
OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE. 
THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD 05/06Z.

CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...LIKELY BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 05/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.