[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 042007
SWODY1
SPC AC 042005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
CTY 35 N DAB ...CONT... 40 S MIA 15 NW EYW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SJC 55 NNW UKI EUG 30
SSE PDX EPH 55 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 WNW RRT AXN OTG 35 NW CNK LBL
PVW SJT 25 E CRP ...CONT... ELP TCS 4HV MLF P38 DRA NID VBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN MCN AGS ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MOST OF PENINSULAR FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NWRN MO REGION MOVES EWD TOWARD OH VALLEY.
SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER MS DELTA REGION AND NWRN GULF WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS DIXIE TONIGHT...INDUCING FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN
GULF.  EXPECT THIS CYCLONE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA LATE
THIS PERIOD INTO EARLY DAY-2.  MEANWHILE...SFC FRONTAL ZONE NOW
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FL SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS AMBIENT
WAA AND SLY FLOW COMPONENT IS OFFSET BY STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LARGE
PRECIP AREA ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE OVER REGION WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS.  REF WW 220 AND RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO.

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW APCHS AND MOVES INLAND W COAST.  ASSOCIATED
ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED BACKING OF SFC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ENLARGED
BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL FL AND PERHAPS
INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS OVER S FL.  LIFTED PARCELS
SHOULD BE NEARLY SFC BASED GIVEN DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F AND TEMPS
MID-UPPER 70S...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS.  WEAKNESSES
IN LOW-MIDLEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW MAY LIMIT DURATION OF SEVERE
THREAT WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH COLLECTIVE
SEVERE POTENTIAL -- GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED -- TO
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK.

...TX BIG BEND TO ERN NM MOUNTAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THIS
REGION...AS DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN ERODES REMAINING
CINH.  MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA IS MARGINAL BUT INCREASING...WITH SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 40S/50S F OVER FAR W TX AND UPPER 30S/40S OVER ERN
NM PLAINS AND MESAS.  WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT BULK SHEAR
VALUES AND WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZES SMALL.  HOWEVER A FEW
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS MAY DEVELOP GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND 50-60 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOWS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGH
BASED...BENEATH MLCAPES 200-800 J/KG.  DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN NARROW CORRIDOR JUST E OF MOUNTAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK HAS ERODED AWAY...ALLOWING OPTIMAL INSOLATION HEATING
FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  A FEW HAIL/GUSTS EVENTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
ARE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THIS
REGION...WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WIND/HAIL EVENTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
SLOW/POTENTIALLY DEVIANT MOTIONS OF DISCRETE CELLS MAY AID STORM
ORGANIZATION FOR BRIEF PERIODS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

..EDWARDS.. 05/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.