[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041626
SWODY1
SPC AC 041624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
CTY 15 NE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MRY 20 E SJC
55 NNW UKI 15 SSW EUG 30 SSE PDX 45 ESE YKM 55 NW 63S ...CONT... 75
SSW GDP 25 ENE TCS 35 NW 4HV 35 W MLF 30 SSW P38 55 SW DRA 35 N OXR
15 W SBA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 10 SSE MCN 30 SE
CAE 30 SW ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RRT 30 ESE AXN
40 ESE SUX 45 W CNK 25 ENE LBL 40 W CDS SJT 10 NE CRP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...FL...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN AND
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA ATTM...MAINLY S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM ROUGHLY JAX TO CTY.  A FEW STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS ARE
ONGOING...BUT INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
RECENTLY AS COVERAGE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND.

DESPITE SUFFICIENTLY-STRONG WIND FIELD...INHIBITED DAYTIME HEATING
AND THUS ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NRN / CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON --
PARTICULARLY AS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE ERN GULF CONTINUES MOVING ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL FL.  THOUGH
A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL
BELOW THAT OF YESTERDAY.

GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS S FL ATTM...WHERE ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
INDICATED.  BOUNDARY-LAYER CU FIELD IS INCREASING OVER S FL...WITH
APPARENT SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS
APPROACHING THE ERN FL COAST ATTM.  

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS S FL THAN AREAS
FURTHER N...BUT SOME INCREASE IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THEREFORE...WILL EXPAND THE SEVERE THREAT SWD
ACROSS ALL OF S FL TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION.  FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #734. 

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS INVOF 40 F/ IS INDICATED ACROSS
THIS REGION...WITH LBF /NORTH PLATTE NEB/ SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWING DRY AIR EXTENDING TO 700 MB.  THOUGH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION IS INDICATED...BELIEVE THE NAM / NAMKF ARE MUCH TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH FORECASTS OF MID 40S DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
FULL SUN / DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...RUC PFCS SHOWING LOW 30S DEWPOINTS
AND DEEP INVERTED V PROFILES SEEM MUCH MORE REASONABLE. 
THUS...DESPITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BELIEVE THAT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MEAGER SUCH THAT ONLY MINIMAL
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION.  

SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TOWARD THIS REGION ATTM.  DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY
ANTICIPATED...SLIGHT LARGE-SCALE UVV ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER FEATURE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
 

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS
FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
FORECAST SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD YIELD GREATER INSTABILITY...MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
THREAT FOR HAIL / EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN WIND GUSTS.  THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS
REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING / WEAK MOIST ADVECTION AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE NAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS. 

...SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...WITHIN ZONE OF
BROAD WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH.  THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
REGION UNDER WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ATTM.  THOUGH TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLDER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE COAST.  THUS -- WITH LITTLE
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND WITH ANY COOLING ALOFT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL AFTER
DARK...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.