[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041207
SWODY1
SPC AC 041205

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
MIA 30 S FMY ...CONT... 35 SSE CTY 15 NE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 30 N MRF
20 ESE CNM 40 NE 4CR 35 NNW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 W BCE 50 WSW MLF 50 E
U31 35 E LOL 15 E RNO 30 NNW NID 25 NNE SBA 30 ESE MRY 35 S UKI EKA
20 N 4BK 10 NNW ONP 20 NW OLM 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 40
NNW GTF 75 SW GGW 15 SE GDV 20 ESE ISN 40 NNW DVL 45 SE RRT 50 SSW
INL 40 W BRD 40 S STC 25 S FRM 50 ENE DSM 30 WSW BRL 25 ENE MKC 15 N
BIE 30 E HLC 25 SW GCK 45 WSW SPS 35 W ACT 15 ESE PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AQQ 40 NNE DHN
25 SSW ATL 30 SSE AHN 40 N SAV 35 SSW CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...FL...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
NATION TODAY..WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER TX. 
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. 
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
LAND/SEA INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXISTS OFF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. 
SEVERE THREAT INLAND WILL BE LESSENED THIS MORNING DUE TO MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING.  MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN YESTERDAY. 
BUT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO NUMEROUS SEA-BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW A WEAK UPPER VORT
MAX OVER WESTERN WY.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS BY EVENING. FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG SSWLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS REGION WILL AID IN SOME DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...WITH POCKETS OF MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/CO
INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD
CENTRAL NEB.  A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
TODAY.

...SACRAMENTO VALLEY CA...
NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. 
STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-16 AT 500MB/ WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR VALLEY OF CA...LEADING TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER
THIS REGION AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MLCAPE OF
200-500 J/KG.  HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  SEVERE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...SO WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.