[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040507
SWODY1
SPC AC 040505

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 30 N MRF
20 ESE CNM 40 NE 4CR 35 NNW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 W BCE 50 WSW MLF 50 E
U31 35 E LOL 15 E RNO 30 NNW NID 25 NNE SBA 30 ESE MRY 35 S UKI EKA
20 N 4BK 10 NNW ONP 20 NW OLM 10 NNW BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 40 NNW GTF
70 SW GGW 20 WNW ABR 30 NNW FOD 40 SSW ALO 25 ENE IRK 45 N SZL 35
SSE BIE 15 ENE HLC 25 NNW LBL 45 WSW SPS 35 W ACT 40 SSW PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW AQQ 40 S AYS 30
ENE SAV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE NERN STATES AND A NEW UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WRN STATES.  IN BETWEEN...A PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID/LWR MS VLYS BY 05/12Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL FL.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS FL ON
WEDNESDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS.  MESOSCALE DETAILS AND AFFECTS OF ANY RESIDUAL
CLOUDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE/HEATING WILL MAKE FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST ON COVERAGE/LOCATION OF THE GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. 
SEABREEZE/RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCI FOR
TSTMS...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.  EVOLUTION INTO HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN THE ABOVE
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE MORE CERTAIN.

...NERN CO/NWRN KS TO CNTRL NEB...
LEE-TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...IN TANDEM WITH THE NRN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE. 
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. INCREASE IN MOISTURE...APPROACH OF
THE UPPER WAVE DURING PEAK HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH
BASED TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO CNTRL NEB AFTER 21Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR
OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH GIVEN
SOMEWHAT WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY...COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLD AT BEST WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL/WIND.  ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS AND MOVE ACROSS NEB OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY
SUB-SEVERE.

...NRN/CNTRL CA...
UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ONSHORE CNTRL/NRN CA ON
WEDNESDAY.  STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL CA AND GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING EWD INTO CNTRL CA...MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF KSTO.  HOWEVER...IN THE NRN VLYS
WHERE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER... THERMODYNAMIC
SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD STRONG TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE
HAILSTONES APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

..RACY/LEVIT.. 05/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.