[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 032002
SWODY1
SPC AC 032000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 20
SE SRQ 30 E PIE 30 NNW AGR 15 W MLB VRB 40 WNW PBI 40 SE FMY FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN FLG ELY 50
SE OWY 70 NNW WMC 25 WNW SVE 40 WSW MHS MFR 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S
...CONT... 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF 45 E RIW 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE
BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 50 E TAD 35 W CSM ADM 45 SE DAL
35 NW HOU 10 ESE PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 35 N MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. 
EXPECT NRN STREAM DEAMPLIFICATION OVER NERN CONUS...AS TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION TURNS EWD AND WEAKENS.  SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NM
-- IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH SOME GEN TSTM
POTENTIAL IN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE...OVER CENTRAL/WRN TX. 
OTHER GEN TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OVER LARGE PART OF WRN CONUS HIGHER TERRAIN.  SFC FRONTAL
ZONE HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH 04/12Z.  FARTHER W...DEEP/SEASONALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO COVER S-CENTRAL CONUS AND NERN MEX...E OF
MOUNTAINS.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS LIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER FL
PENINSULA...ALONG AND S OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN THE
GULF/ATLANTIC COASTAL SEA BREEZE FRONTS.  LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS
ACROSS PORTIONS BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS BEING UNDERCUT BY
OUTFLOW POOL...WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTS. AIR MASS FARTHER NW ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN FL REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION.  70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL AMBIENT FLOW AND
SHEAR REMAIN WEAK...STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED/LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...BOTH
WITH RIGHT-MOVERS AND LEFT SPLITS.  A FEW OF EACH STORM TYPE HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR INVOF BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES...INCLUDING
RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL SE SRQ AND N FMY.  EXPECT BULK OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO WEAKEN AFTER ABOUT 23Z...WHEN OUTFLOW POOLS WILL SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF AREA AND DIABATIC HEATING HAS PASSED PEAK.

..EDWARDS.. 05/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.