[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031543
SWODY1
SPC AC 031541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CTY 20 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW
60 SSE ELY 50 SE OWY 70 NNW WMC 25 WNW SVE 40 WSW MHS 15 NNE MFR 35
ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF
45 E RIW 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW
GLD 50 E TAD DHT 35 WNW ADM 45 SE DAL 35 NW HOU 10 ESE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION TODAY. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SCT
CONVECTION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OVER
CENTRAL/WRN NM. LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE
ABOVE STABLE SFC LAYER...ISOLATED/SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN WEST WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME.

THE ONLY SVR THREAT TODAY WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEA
BREEZE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN SCT CONVECTION WITH AN
ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL.

...SRN/CENTRAL FL...
ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR AND SOUNDING DATA FROM 02/12Z AND 03/12Z SHOWS
MODEST COOLING FROM 750 MB UP TO 200 MB OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. AS A
RESULT...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEPER.../AROUND
7.0 DEG C/KM/. IN ADDITION STRONGER FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM 500 TO 200
MB TODAY THAN OCCURRED YESTERDAY THUS...STORM TOP VENTING IN THE
UPPER LVLS AND GREATER PARCEL ACCELERATION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
OCCUR. LITTLE CINH EXISTS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND GIVEN FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE ALONG WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND MID LEVEL
ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SCT STRONG/ISOLATED SVR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NWD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL...BUT MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR
FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT /SLT RISK/ WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM
LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 25-30 KTS...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK INVERSION IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER NOTED ON THE 12Z MFL AND TBW
SOUNDINGS.

...WRN/CENTRAL NM...
RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 60/38 AT ABQ. AMPLE SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER THE AREA.

..CROSBIE/HALES.. 05/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.