[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021552
SWODY1
SPC AC 021550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS
15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 60 NW NID 45 NE SCK 45 WSW RBL 45 SSW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E BLI 35 WSW EAT
40 SSE YKM 20 W ALW 20 NNW GEG 55 NE GEG 25 W MSO 30 NE 27U 55 WNW
IDA 15 ESE OGD 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 25 E TAD 40 NE CVS 60 NNW ABI 15 E
MWL 25 WNW AUS 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ORF 20 SSW NHK
10 S DCA 30 SSW IPT 25 N UCA BTV 25 ESE BML 30 SE AUG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS COVERS CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF S FL.  AS A RESULT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS QUITE
LIMITED FOR EARLY MAY. A STRONG COLD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE NERN U.S. WITH A FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVING FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO OFF SRN ENGLAND COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY SOME RETURN FLOW OF MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS IS MAKING
ITS MAY BACK INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PRIMARILY W OF THE
RIVER.

...NERN U.S...
HAVE CONTINUED A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN
MD/DE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
SURFACE HEATING...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT MUCAPES COULD CLIMB TO
200-300 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
50-60 KT AND INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS THAT DEVELOP PRIOR TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL OF STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS AS
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS AREA.

ADDITIONALLY SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE COLD
AIRMASS.

...BIG BEND AREA OF LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON SELY FLOW INTO THIS AREA...HOWEVER
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM
THREAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE ON THE MEXICO SIDE OF RIO GRANDE RIVER.

LOW CLOUDINESS NOW ACROSS BIG BEND AREA WILL DELAY HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY FORM OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO AND THEN DEVELOP UNDER 30-40 KT OF WLY FLOW
ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND
WITH EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY
CONFINED TO MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IF SUFFICIENT CAPE CAN
DEVELOP INTO THE BIG BEND REGION.  THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
SOON LOW CLOUDINESS NOW ACROSS REGION CAN DISSIPATE.

...SRN FL...
SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO INTRODUCING LOW SEVERE THREAT INTO SRN
FL...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM SHOULD LIMIT 
THE POTENTIAL. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA
BREEZE FRONT DURING AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 2000 J/KG.

..HALES/GUYER.. 05/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.