[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021235
SWODY1
SPC AC 021233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E BLI 35 WSW EAT
40 SSE YKM 35 ESE BKE 10 SE TWF 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 30 SE EHA 15 NNE
CSM 40 W ADM 40 SSE SEP 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS
15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 50 NNW NID 45 ENE SCK EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ACY 15 SW DOV 15
S BWI 35 S IPT 35 ESE BGM 15 W LEB 25 WNW AUG 30 SE AUG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  ILL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOW EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY INTO KY/TN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FOCUSED DURING THE DAY AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGIONS.  MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THESE AREAS...SUGGESTING THAT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP. 
FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN NH INTO MD.  DESPITE CAPE VALUES ONLY IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
INDICATE A THREAT OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
 THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL COOLING AND AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.  WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF DEEP CONVECTION...
AS WELL AS MINIMAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES.

...SOUTHWEST TX...
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS TX
TODAY...WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA.  SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...LIKELY AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z.  PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY INDICATE A MARGINAL THREAT OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. 
ANY STORMS SOUTH OF FRONT COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY
MAY SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. 


...FL...
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. 
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK.  HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..HART/BANACOS.. 05/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.