[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 022004
SWODY1
SPC AC 022002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2005

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS
SOW IGM 60 NW NID 45 NE SCK 45 WSW RBL 45 SSW OTH ...CONT... 60 E
BLI 35 WSW EAT 40 SSE YKM 20 W ALW 20 NNW GEG 55 NE GEG 25 W MSO 30
NE 27U MQM OGD 50 N PUC 50 ESE ASE TAD 50 WSW CVS HOB BGS JCT HDO 65
SSE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY ILG IPT SYR SLK
BML 30 SE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ MLB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED FOR REMAINDER DAY-1 BY LARGE CYCLONE OVER
ERN CANADA...AS NUMEROUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.  ONE OF THESE
TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM LE SWD
ACROSS WRN NC -- IS FCST TO ACCELERATE NEWD...DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND
MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY COLD
FRONT OVER NWRN ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE FROM COAST...EXCEPT WHERE
TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL FL AS QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY.  SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND ALSO WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD.

...SW TX - RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DENSE STRATUS DECK PERSISTING -- GENERALLY OVER
AND W OF RIO GRANDE FROM BRO-DRT...THEN NWWD UP PECOS VALLEY AND
OVER MOST OF ERN NM.  BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
AS LOW CLOUDS RESTRICT SFC HEATING FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
ON HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA AND WRN TRANS-PECOS REGION. MOST
FAVORABLE SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE FROM MOUTH OF PECOS RIVER SEWD
ALONG MEX MOUNTAIN FRONT AND FOOTHILLS.  ALTHOUGH STRONG/BRIEFLY
SEVERE TSTMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE W
DRT...PRIND RISK OF SEVERE IS TOO SMALL FOR 5 PERCENT OR GREATER
PROBABILITIES BY THE TIME SUCH ACTIVITY CROSSES OVER 70-100 NM OF
STRATIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH BORDER.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND FROM BOTH
COASTS...POSSIBLY INTERSECTING BY ABOUT 22-23Z ALONG AXIS FROM
KISSIMMEE VALLEY ACROSS OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO EVERGLADES.  ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH
MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL
AMIDST VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.