[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020556
SWODY1
SPC AC 020554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ACY 15 SW DOV 15
S BWI 35 S IPT 35 ESE BGM 15 W LEB 25 WNW AUG 30 SE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE 10 SE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E BLI 35 WSW EAT
40 SSE YKM 35 ESE BKE 10 SE TWF 50 N PUC 60 E GUC 30 SE EHA 15 NNE
CSM 40 W ADM 40 SSE SEP 15 SSE SAT 65 SSE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 35 ESE TCS
15 NE SOW 50 NNE IGM 50 NNW NID 45 ENE SCK EKA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF
THE CONUS...WHILE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATES EWD
THROUGH THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION INTO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  

ELSEWHERE...SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SWRN U.S. / SRN ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SPREADING SWD / SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS / OH / TN
VALLEYS WITH TIME.  THOUGH GENERALLY COOL / STABLE AIR SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS AS A RESULT...SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT IS
ANTICIPATED WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS. 

...BIG BEND / RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OF TX...
SELY FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE THIS PERIOD WILL
ALLOW MARGINAL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWWD TOWARD THE TRANSPECOS
REGION...AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THOUGH DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION -- IS IN
QUESTION ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. 
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SWWD PROGRESS
OF SECONDARY COLD SURGE NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS /
WRN N TX.  THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE
ELEVATED...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEARS
TO EXIST INVOF THE RIO GRANDE. 

ASSUMING STORMS DO DEVELOP...35 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER /
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL...LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS. 
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND LOCATION
OF FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. 
HOWEVER...GREATER MOISTURE RETURN / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION / SRN NEW ENGLAND...
MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/ AND
SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST DESPITE COLD /-28C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING
EWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SHOWERS / A FEW
LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER
FEATURE / DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.  FAIRLY STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER
FLOW SUGGESTS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH A
COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT.  OVERALL HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

..GOSS.. 05/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.