[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011223
SWODY1
SPC AC 011222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25
S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 W TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 20 NNW YKM
60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 45 SW PUB 30
SE LBL 25 ESE CSM 10 NNW SPS 25 NNE ABI 40 NW BGS 35 NW ROW 40 S GUP
35 W GCN 45 NE DRA 75 WNW TPH 20 NE RBL 50 ESE CEC 30 NNE OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN MOST LOCALES.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THREAT.  ALSO...AXIS OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ACROSS PARTS OF NV/UT...AND INTO WEST
TX/OK. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS.

...FL THIS MORNING...
MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE MCS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND NEAR FMY.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND
FIELDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...AND THAT RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  NEVERTHELESS...
ORGANIZED NATURE OF MCS SUGGESTS SOME THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING.  GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME.

..HART/BANACOS.. 05/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.