[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010426
SWODY1
SPC AC 010425

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MSS 45 SE UCA 25
S IPT 25 SW LBE 20 ESE CMH 40 W TOL 10 N LAN 20 SSE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E BLI 20 NNW YKM
60 ENE RDM 25 SW BNO 55 WNW OWY 40 ENE ENV 45 WNW GJT 45 SW PUB 30
SE LBL 25 ESE CSM 10 NNW SPS 25 NNE ABI 40 NW BGS 35 NW ROW 40 S GUP
35 W GCN 45 NE DRA 75 WNW TPH 20 NE RBL 50 ESE CEC 30 NNE OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES
EWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC.  

TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN FL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND RELATIVELY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LITTLE SEVERE THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. THROUGH WLY FLOW
ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS PARTS OF W TX / ERN NM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. 
RESULTING WARM ADVECTION / UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORMS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD.

STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN /
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE.  CONVECTION MAY EXTEND AS FAR NWWD
AS THE PAC NW.

SHOWERS / A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST / LOWER LAKES REGION...AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND LARGER-SCALE UPPER LOW INVOF JAMES BAY.

OVERALL -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL OVER THE CONUS...THUS PRECLUDING ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT.

..GOSS.. 05/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.