[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010046
SWODY1
SPC AC 010044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
MLB 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 45 SSE CTY 30 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 35 S FMY
...CONT... 20 E GPT 15 S SEM 25 W LGC 45 SSE TYS 10 SSE ROA 30 NNE
CXY 20 WNW MSV 15 E PSF 15 S PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BKE 50 W OWY
30 S MLD 55 ENE CAG 20 SSE DEN 25 WNW LAA 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S
DHT 45 ESE DRO 25 NW SGU 50 ENE TPH 25 E UKI 25 E CEC 30 E OTH 30
SSE PDX 45 WNW BKE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
FL...

...CENTRAL AND NRN FL...
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD
POOL...NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE WSWWD
TO JUST NW OF OCALA.  THOUGH LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES WRN FL FROM THE ERN GULF...STRONGER STORMS ARE ONGOING
IN NERN FL...WHERE THIS LINE IS IMPINGING UPON ZONE OF GREATER
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SELY FLOW E OF SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY.

EVENING TBW SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATELY-STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND MODERATE / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE.  THIS
COMBINED WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD POOL / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SUGGEST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING REVERSES SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.


...ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE
STORMS.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
FROM PARTS OF THE PAC NW / NRN CA ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES /
CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  AGAIN...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
LITTLE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..GOSS.. 05/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.