[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311622
SWODY1
SPC AC 311620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
BTR 45 NNW BPT 35 SE TPL 30 E ACT 45 NNW TYR 40 S PBF 25 ENE CBM 20
E TCL 60 SSW SEM 40 NNE GPT 25 W BTR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
BPT 10 SSW HOU 50 N PSX 50 ESE SAT 45 NW AUS 30 NNW DAL 35 SSW ADM
ADM 35 SW MLC 25 SSE PGO 20 NNW TUP 10 E LGC 20 WSW CAE 45 SW FLO 10
N SSI 40 ESE TLH 15 W AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CDR 40 NE 81V
35 WSW BIS 35 SSW JMS 25 ENE FSD 20 NNW OFK 20 SE ANW 30 WNW CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 50 ESE DRT
65 W JCT 30 NW BWD 50 N ABI 50 SSW LBB 40 WSW CVS 35 N TCC 50 E LAA
25 ENE HUT 10 E JLN 15 SE HRO 15 ENE JBR 15 ESE CKV 30 SSW LOZ 20
WNW PKB 40 NNE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE EFK 20 WSW CON
15 S EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PBI 60 NE EYW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF
LA/SRN AR...CENTRAL AND SRN MS AND WESTERN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF LOWER MS VALLEY AND
GULF COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO
TODAY AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT
POSITION OK PANHANDLE TO AR/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT.
REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE PRODUCED A FORMIDABLE
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL GA WSWWD ACROSS SWRN AL THEN WWD INTO
SRN LA. PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO WRN NY/PA HAS ONLY
MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF IT.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS WORKED INLAND LOWER MS VALLEY TO
S OF E/W BOUNDARY.  THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT N/NEWD TONIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS NRN LA AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH.

...ERN TX EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...
FIRST AREA OF SEVERE CONCERN TODAY EXPECTED TO BE VICINITY E/W
BOUNDARY LOWER MS VALLEY.  WITH MLCAPES RISING TO ABOVE 2500 J/K BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SRN LA/SRN MS...AND CAP ERODING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS ERN TX AND THEN INTO NRN LA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES  AHEAD OF STRONG
TROUGH ADVECTING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEWD ACROSS ERN TX INTO
NRN LA/SRN AR.

IN BOTH AREAS DISCUSSED CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
VERY LARGE HAIL WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE MDT RISK. 
ADDITIONALLY AS THE CONVECTIVE AREAS EVOLVE....DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS THE STORM MODE TRANSITIONS INTO SHORT
LINES/BOWS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES EWD ACROSS MS/AL INTO GA.  ISOLATED
TORNADOS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY
EARLY ON IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MORE LINEAR STORM MODE REGIME.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.