[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311946
SWODY1
SPC AC 311944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
BTR 45 NNW BPT 30 ENE CLL 45 ESE ACT 50 ENE ACT 40 NW TYR 45 SSE PRX
40 S PBF CBM 20 N 0A8 20 N SEM 40 SW SEM 35 NNW MOB 25 W BTR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
JAX 20 SE PFN ...CONT... 15 WSW GLS 45 NE VCT 35 S AUS 40 WNW AUS 50
W TPL 10 NW FTW 15 SE ADM 20 S MLC 15 S LIT 30 NE TUP 10 NNW RMG 15
NNW CAE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E EFK 15 E CON 20
SW EWB ...CONT... 25 N PBI 60 NE EYW ...CONT... 30 SSW PSX 30 W NIR
45 NW COT 45 E DRT 25 WNW JCT 50 WNW MWL 40 SSW SPS 55 WSW SPS 60 NW
ABI 50 SSW LBB 30 S CVS 35 N TCC 30 SSE LAA 50 NNE GCK 30 SE SLN 25
E CNU 25 S HRO 55 NNE LIT 30 E MKL 50 N CSV 10 NNE HTS 25 WNW PKB 40
NNE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BUB 25 NNE MHN
25 N CDR 45 NW RAP 15 NE REJ 25 ESE Y22 50 NW ABR 25 NNE ATY 20 NE
FSD 20 SSE YKN 50 NE BUB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TX...LA...MS...WRN AL AND FAR SRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL STATES...

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL ADVANCE EWD TONIGHT
REACHING ERN OK LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE/FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE DALLAS
AREA EXTENDING SSWWD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SRN TX
HILL COUNTRY. SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE FROM THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS LA AND SRN MS. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TX STRENGTHENS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIATE STORMS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE STORMS STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING EWD
ACROSS EAST TX INTO THE WRN PART OF THE MDT RISK AREA. A MID-LEVEL
JET ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
AS CELLS INITIATE...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE MDT RISK AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPER AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE COLDER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL MAKE VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITH SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE
JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS
LA INTO MS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ENHANCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES
AND MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ERN LA...CNTRL AND SRN MS...AND WRN AL DURING
THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME-FRAME.

...ERN AL/GA/SC...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN GA EXTENDING NEWD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
MOST OF AL AND GA...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN UNSTABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS THE REGION. AS AN UPPER-LOW AND LARGE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS AL...GA AND SC WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 09Z
ACROSS ERN AL AND GA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE DUE TO SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 03/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.