[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311245
SWODY1
SPC AC 311243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
ESF 20 SSE LFK 20 WNW CLL 55 WSW TYR 45 N TYR 40 ENE ELD 35 NE CBM
20 NE TCL 25 WNW SEM LUL 25 SW ESF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
7R4 LCH 40 NNE HOU 50 N PSX 50 ESE SAT 40 WNW AUS 30 NNW DAL 35 SSW
ADM ADM 35 SW MLC 25 SSE PGO 15 S MEM 15 NNE RMG 20 NNE CAE 45 SW
FLO 10 N SSI 40 ESE TLH 15 W AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 15 S VCT 40 ENE
COT 30 NNE HDO 40 E JCT 10 SE SEP 60 WNW MWL 65 NNW ABI 50 WNW LBB
45 NE CVS LHX IML 35 WSW MBG 40 NE MBG 10 NE ATY 15 SSE OTG 10 S SUX
50 NE HLC 25 SSE GCK 20 SW GAG 35 W END 15 ENE PNC 40 NE TUL 45 E
FSM 35 N LIT 35 E MKL 35 WNW LOZ 45 W UNI 25 ESE TOL 50 WNW ANJ
...CONT... 15 ENE EFK 35 WNW GFL 10 NW ELM 25 ENE HGR 25 SE NEL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL...NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL
MS...AND WESTERN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MORNING.  PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LOW NOW
NEAR DHT...AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EAST TX
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

...MS/AL/GA/SC/FL TODAY...
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN
MS INTO CENTRAL AL/GA. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
ALL NIGHT...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS INTO THE LINE MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING....WITH STORMS DEVELOPING INTO PARTS
OF SC...SOUTHERN GA/AL...AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN FL THIS AFTERNOON. 
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF STORMS WILL
AID SEVERE THREAT.  STORMS MAY ALSO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

...EAST TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT EAST TX AND MUCH OF LA TODAY...AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 FROM DAL TO SAT BY
AFTERNOON.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES
1200-1900 J/KG/.  CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY AROUND 21Z FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT. INITIAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE EVENING INTO WESTERN LA WHERE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

...LA/MS/AL OVERNIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT CLUSTER OF INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN LA INTO
MS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MODELS ALSO SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW...OR A FAST MOVING SEVERE MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IF
THE MCS CAN DEVELOP...STORMS WILL LIKELY RACE EASTWARD ACROSS MS AND
INTO AL BY 12Z.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.