[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310559
SWODY1
SPC AC 310558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
ESF LFK 25 ESE TYR 15 SSW UOX 20 NNE GAD 25 WNW LGC 10 SE MGM LUL 30
SSW ESF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
7R4 LCH CLL 50 SE DAL UOX 65 NNW AHN 40 NNW AGS SAV JAX 40 SSW VLD
40 E AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE EFK 35 WNW GFL
10 NW ELM 25 ENE HGR 25 SE NEL ...CONT... GLS 20 S SAT 45 ESE JCT 55
S BWD 30 S SEP 20 W MWL 60 WNW MWL 65 NNW ABI 50 WNW LBB 45 NE CVS
LHX IML 35 WSW MBG 40 NE MBG 10 NE ATY 15 SSE OTG 10 S SUX 50 NE HLC
25 SSE GCK 20 SW GAG 35 W END 15 ENE PNC 40 NE TUL 45 E FSM 35 N LIT
35 E MKL 35 WNW LOZ 45 W UNI 25 ESE TOL 50 WNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF E TEXAS/NRN LA/CNTRL MS AND NRN AL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
STATES....

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES.  IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...BROAD CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  LEAD TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF A
COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

IN MORE NORTHERN STREAM...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  NARROWING/SHRINKING WARM SECTOR WITH OCCLUDING SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT WITH FORMER SYSTEM. 
WIND FIELDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
GULF STATES TODAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IN MORE SOUTHERN
STREAM DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  STALLING FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY 
...PARTICULARLY AS WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH MID
60S/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
GULF COASTAL AREAS...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY BENEATH STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME.

...EASTERN GULF STATES...
PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO LEAD NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE...AND PERHAPS
A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE...OR SUBTROPICAL FEATURE...IN ADVANCE
OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS ALABAMA/GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. 
ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH CAPE LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A HAIL THREAT...AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES MAY
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION.  IF THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
INCREASE AS WELL.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/LACK OF FOCUSED STRONG CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.  IF THIS OCCURS...MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT IN SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR/SOUTH
OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...AND RISK FOR SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW
EVOLVES/DEEPENS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO STALLED
EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES...WHICH MAY PERSIST/SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT.

..KERR/JEWELL.. 03/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.