[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310058
SWODY1
SPC AC 310057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCB 30
S JAN 45 SW CBM 35 S CBM 40 SSW TCL 50 E LUL 20 NNW GPT 35 SE MCB
MCB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
MFD 35 NW LEX 35 SSW PAH 10 SSW POF 10 ENE ALN 15 E PIA RFD 35 NNE
JVL 20 ESE OSH 50 S ESC 35 NNW APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
7R4 30 SW HEZ 30 S GLH 20 ESE MEM 10 SSW MKL 55 SSW CKV 15 SE BNA 35
NW CHA 25 ENE GAD 20 ESE MGM 20 ESE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE GLD 25 SSW P28
55 E OKC 20 NW ADM SPS 25 E PVW TCC 20 SW PUB 30 N CYS 15 ENE BFF 15
SSE GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 55 SSE GDV
25 S 4BQ 50 SSE BIL 15 WNW 3HT 25 NW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI TRI AHN 30
WNW PFN ...CONT... 35 WSW 7R4 30 W ESF 30 SE PBF 30 N ARG 30 SSW SPI
40 ENE MLI 25 SW ALO 30 E FRM 70 NNE MSP 15 WNW IWD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MS
AND A SMALL PART OF WRN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS...TN AND AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE GREAT LAKE STATES...

...GREAT LAKE STATES...
INTENSE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS MOVING INTO SWRN WI
THIS EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD AND PUSHING INTO WRN
IL/SWRN WI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS
ADVECTING MID/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...AND SHEAR
PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTS NWD THROUGH WI AND STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT GIVEN THE
COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL
AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS.

...MS/AL AND TN...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SPREADING NWD
ACROSS SERN LA AND EXTREME SRN MS. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM IS AROUND 20 KT AND SHOULD INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SHEAR
PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. SOME CONCERN IF TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK...ESPECIALLY SINCE
EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPDRAFT BASES MAY STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...
MODERATE RISK WAS MAINTAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MS AND A SMALL
PART OF WEST CENTRAL AL...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO OCCUR.

..IMY.. 03/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.