[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 302016
SWODY1
SPC AC 302014

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
AZO 10 ESE MIE 25 W IND 40 N EVV MVN ALN 30 SSW MLI CID 20 SSW ALO
20 NNE MCW 35 WSW LSE 15 S OSH 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
JAN 20 W GWO 25 NW UOX 40 S MKL 30 WNW MSL 15 SSE MSL 20 ENE TCL 40
SSE MEI 30 E MCB 40 ENE HEZ 40 W JAN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
CLE 30 SW CAK 35 S SDF 35 E BNA 10 S ANB TOI 40 ENE MOB MSY ESF 30 S
GLH 35 W MEM 25 NW POF 35 ENE VIH OTM 40 SSW FOD FRM 45 WNW EAU 35
WNW IMT 35 E PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 40 S ELD 40
NE LIT 20 ESE UNO 15 NNE VIH IRK 30 NW LWD 25 E OFK 30 N AXN 25 E
INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 50 S Y22 35
NW PHP 40 W MHN 20 SW MCK 10 E P28 15 S PNC 35 N ADM 30 NW LTS 30
ENE ABQ 45 NNW GUP 35 ESE SLC 10 NE BYI 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ERI 35 WNW BLF
35 NW AGS 40 WSW PFN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS REMAINDER
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN IA...EXTREME SERN
MN...SRN WI...AND IL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT...PORTIONS MS AND WRN
AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM WI...LM AND
LOWER MI TO SERN LA AND PORTIONS MS/AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL/REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER SWRN IA...WHICH IS BECOMING MORE
COLOCATED WITH SFC CYCLONE.  EXPECT LOW AT ALL LEVELS TO LIFT NEWD
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...ACROSS WI.  TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT --
NOW ANALYZED OVER SERN IA...S-CENTRAL MO...NWRN AR AND N-CENTRAL
TX...SHOULD MOVE EWD TO NRN LA...NRN MS...MID TN...ERN INDIANA AND
LOWER MI BY 31/12Z.  TWO SFC WARM FRONTS ARE ANALYZED -- ONE
COINCIDENT WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM SFC LOW ACROSS
SERN MN/NWRN WI...THE OTHER LIFTING NWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES STATES...
AS LATTER WARM FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NWD...SO WILL SFC-BASED SEVERE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  CONTINUING
DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION ALSO WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL IN WARM SECTOR AND ALONG/AHEAD OF
MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN IL.  DESPITE
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHEAR/BUOYANCY PROFILES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...EVENTUAL BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT...AND ALL
MODES OF SEVERE.  REF WWS 105-106 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS.

AREA BENEATH AND JUST NE OF COLD CORE REGION OF MIDLEVEL CYCLONE --
ACROSS NERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI...STILL POSE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
AS WELL AS A FEW MORE NONSUPERCELL AND MINI-SUPERCELL TORNADOES. 
NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY REMAINS AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 434 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS.
THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SFC
HEATING LOSS REDUCES MLCAPES...HOWEVER HAIL FROM ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS WI AND PERHAPS ERN UPPER MI.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL...
DEEP CONVECTION MAY REMAIN SUPPRESSED DIURNALLY BENEATH STRONG CAP
EVIDENT IN 18Z JAN RAOB. HOWEVER...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY WITH TIME TONIGHT OVER THIS REGION...AMIDST CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WAA FROM RAPIDLY MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS. 
SPATIAL WIDTH...VERTICAL DEPTH AND PW CONTENT OF FAVORABLY MOIST
AIR WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT REMAINDER PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES DEW POINTS MID 60S F INTO ERN LA ATTM...70S OVER GULF S OF
MS DELTA.  SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEARLY
SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF MS AND PERHAPS
ADJOINING SECTIONS WRN AL/ERN LA.  MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG SBCAPE POSSIBLE BY 31/06Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITH 
EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH ROUGHLY 300 J/KG...200-300 J/KG SRH IN FIRST KM
AGL...AND 60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.  DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES MAY
OCCUR...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

...SRN IL TO WRN TN...
RELATIVE MIN IN TOTAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INDICATED FROM SRN IL SWD
ACROSS NWRN TN --- IN BETWEEN TWO PRIMARY SEVERE AREAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN S OF SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC ADJUSTMENTS...RESULTING IN SOME
VEERED FLOW AND RELATIVELY MINIMIZED CONVERGENCE.  SOME CONVECTION
MAY BACKBUILD INTO THIS AREA BRIEFLY -- INVOF SFC FRONT -- BEFORE
LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...AND NRN PORTION OF WAA/MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME FROM GULF MAY BRUSH WRN TN TONIGHT.  ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS
STILL WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO BECAUSE OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. 
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBABILITIES SUFFICIENT FOR
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.

..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.