[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300622
SWODY1
SPC AC 300620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
SBN 10 SE MIE SDF 35 SSW CKV DYR 30 E POF 40 NW CGI 35 ESE OTM 15 N
CID 20 SW LNR 25 NNW MSN 15 WNW MKE 15 WNW BEH 35 ESE SBN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE
OSC 35 NNW CMH 35 ESE LUK 25 NW CSV 30 W CHA 35 SW TCL 50 W JAN 50
WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 65 ESE VIH 35 E IRK 30 NE LWD 10 SSW FOD 40 E EAU
35 NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BUF 20 N PIT 20
N CRW 20 E JKL 20 W AVL 45 W AGS 60 SSE MCN 40 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BVE 15 NW BTR
30 S MLU LIT 15 ESE UNO JEF 40 S P35 20 SSW BIE 15 SE OLU 10 E FSD
25 ESE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 35 WNW Y22
40 ESE 4BQ 40 SSE 81V 15 NNE CDR 50 SW MHN 20 NNE GCK 20 ESE P28 30
SSW PNC 20 WSW OKC 55 SW GAG 30 ESE RTN 35 N CEZ 35 NNE U28 15 S MLD
45 E S80 85 NW FCA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TN / WRN KY NWD ACROSS
EXTREME ERN MO / IL / IN / ERN IA / SRN WI....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SWD ACROSS THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NEWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER NERN KS SHOULD MOVE
NEWD TO ERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT. 
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE OHIO / TN VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD.  AN 80-PLUS KT SWLY
MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. 
MEANWHILE...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD INTO
THIS REGION AHEAD OF 990 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MO VALLEY.
 COMBINATION OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG HEATING BENEATH
DRY SLOT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN
500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FROM LA / MS NWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY.  

THOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS IA AND VICINITY AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF MAIN VORT MAX...CAP ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN CAP...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG / AHEAD OF 
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY ALLOWING STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD FROM
ONGOING IA CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS ERN MO / IL BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON
/ EARLY EVENING.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW STORMS
TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.  STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EVENING WHEN SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS IL / IN. 
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...PRIMARY STORM MODE IS FORECAST TO BE
SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION TO 50 TO 60
KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR / HELICITY IS
ANTICIPATED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS IL / SRN WI WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BACKED AHEAD OF IA SURFACE LOW.  THIS SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND AT LEAST SOME
THREAT FOR A STRONGER TORNADO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING
HOURS FROM WRN TN NWD ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR EWD AS LOWER MI / WRN OH /
CENTRAL KY / MIDDLE TN...WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.