[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301249
SWODY1
SPC AC 301247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
AZO 10 ESE MIE 10 WNW SDF 20 WSW BNA 15 NNW MSL 25 S TUP 30 SSW UOX
MEM 25 SW PAH SLO 20 N ALN 35 SSW UIN 25 E DSM 35 WSW ALO 55 NE ALO
25 NNW MSN 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
CLE 30 SW CAK 25 WNW UNI 30 NW CSV 15 NE ANB 10 SW TOI 40 ENE MOB 40
WNW MOB 25 SSW JAN 30 S GLH 50 WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 30 ENE VIH 25 SSE
P35 15 ENE OMA 35 WSW SPW 45 WNW EAU 10 W ESC 35 E PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BUF 20 N PIT 20
N CRW 20 E JKL 20 W AVL 45 W AGS 60 SSE MCN 40 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GPT 20 W BTR
35 WSW MLU LIT 10 S UNO 20 SW JEF 45 ENE MKC 20 SSW BIE 30 NE OFK 10
E FSD 25 ESE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 45 WNW Y22
35 WNW PHP 40 ESE AIA 20 NNE GCK 20 ESE P28 30 SSW PNC 20 WSW OKC 55
SW GAG 55 N SAF 15 S CEZ 20 NNW U28 15 S MLD 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...MUCH OF IL...MUCH OF
IND...WESTERN KY...WESTERN TN...AND NORTHERN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS/OH
VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEB/KS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY ACROSS MO/IA AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. 
MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WESTERN IA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD.  THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR TWO AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  ONE AREA ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL/WI/NORTHERN
IND.  THE SECOND AREA FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO NORTHERN MS.

...IA/MS THIS MORNING...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH.  LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT.  PLEASE REFER TO MD NUMBER 430 FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

...IA/WI/IL/NRN IND THIS AFTERNOON...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IA.  STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT
DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS.  AFTERNOON
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -20 WILL
COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. 
IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION IN EXIT REGION OF
70-80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET.  SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY...ORGANIZING INTO BROKEN LINES OF
SEVERE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND
SOUTHERN WI.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES UNTIL AFTER DARK...POTENTIALLY LESSENING THE RISK OF
STRONG TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. 
REGARDLESS... NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA.

...SRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THIS EVENING...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60F AS FAR NORTH
AS SOUTHERN AR...AND MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TX.  STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY. 
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
WESTERN KY/TN AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. CORE OF 80 KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL NOSE ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND THAT TIME...WITH LOW
LEVEL JET BECOMING MORE DEFINED.  MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND A WEAK CAP.  ALSO...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  IF MOISTURE RETURN IS AS
STRONG AS EXPECTED...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL
ALSO EXIST IN THIS AREA.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH TIME ACROSS EASTERN MS AND MUCH OF AL.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.