[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291236
SWODY1
SPC AC 291234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE 63S 60 NNW 27U
35 NW JAC 40 NW AKO 30 NW IML 40 S 9V9 45 SSW FAR 15 WNW BJI 35 NW
HIB 40 E DLH 30 WNW CWA 15 NE MLI 10 NNE VIH 20 NNW HOT 30 WNW PGO
25 WSW TUL 25 NNE END 25 N GAG 30 ENE TCC 25 SSE ABQ 80 NNE INW 15
NNE ELY 55 ESE 4LW ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UT/AZ IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z. 
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL KS.  A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THIS REGION...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AROUND SUNSET AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS EASTWARD.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO REGION.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS.  LARGE SURFACE T-TD
SPREADS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS IN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION.  POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE ACTIVITY BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS/NEB AND
WESTERN IA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ALONG WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS /GENERALLY BETWEEN ICT AND DDC/.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THIS AREA...AND
ERODE THE CAP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22-01Z.  SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS
AREA FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREAL
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION RATHER SPARSE.  THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.  HOWEVER...PARTS OF CENTRAL KS MAY
REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS OF
SCENARIO BECOME MORE EVIDENT.

..HART/BANACOS.. 03/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.