[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290549
SWODY1
SPC AC 290547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE 63S 60 NNW 27U
35 NW JAC 40 NW AKO 30 NW IML 40 S 9V9 45 SSW FAR 15 WNW BJI 35 NW
HIB 40 E DLH 30 WNW CWA 15 NE MLI 10 NNE VIH 20 NNW HOT 30 WNW PGO
25 WSW TUL 25 NNE END 25 N GAG 30 ENE TCC 25 SSE ABQ 80 NNE INW 15
NNE ELY 55 ESE 4LW ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRONOUNCED VORT MAX -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...AND THEN CURVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...ELONGATED PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND N-S ACROSS
THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT NEWD
TOWARD IA WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW /
FRONT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
AS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT
MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/.  THOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  

WITH DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WRN KS...A LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
FURTHER E INTO CENTRAL KS / ERN NEB...GREATER INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. 
OVERNIGHT...A LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

..GOSS.. 03/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.