[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271632
SWODY1
SPC AC 271631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
MOB 60 NNE MOB 40 SW TCL 30 ENE CBM 15 WSW MSL 40 NNE MSL 25 SE BNA
20 WNW CSV 40 SE CSV 20 ESE RMG 25 WSW AHN 10 N AGS 50 NNE SAV 30
ENE SAV 20 NE SSI 30 E VLD 35 ENE AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
GPT 30 SSE LUL 45 SW CBM 35 SSE MKL 40 NE MKL 30 SE SDF 55 W HTS 10
SE HTS 25 NW BLF 35 NNW GSO 30 NNE RDU 25 SE ORF ...CONT... MLB 15 S
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 20 SE S06
55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BVE 45 SE MCB
25 NNE MCB 40 N HEZ 15 NW MLU 40 N ELD 25 NW LIT 20 WNW POF 15 SW
MVN 40 SSE MIE 30 N MGW 25 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN SWD ACROSS AL
AND GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN
STATES...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA....

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER E TX WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO AL/GA BY TONIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH BEGINNING TO
PHASE WITH THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...THE SURFACE LOW INVOF NW AL
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN TO ERN KY BY LATE
TONIGHT.  ONLY SLOW EWD MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TODAY
FROM MS INTO WRN AL...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD
TONIGHT ACROSS AL/GA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF
INTO THE SE STATES.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS
MORNING...AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
AL/GA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS.
 SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS AL...BUT CONVECTION
IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST NWD
INTO CENTRAL AL...WHERE 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE VERY MOIST AND ONLY
WEAKLY CAPPED. THIS EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO
SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A FEW TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE
ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES MAY CONFINE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT TO SE AL AND SRN/CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE SURFACE LOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND INCREASING  ASCENT SHOULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  BACKED
WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL TEND TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE NERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS IN QUESTION
GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION.  THE MORNING BAND OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
GA HAS REINFORCED THE WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
PIEDMONT...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MERGED WITH THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COMBINED BOUNDARY. 
STILL...A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR AND ABOVE THE
GROUND SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS N GA.
 THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 03/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.