[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271952
SWODY1
SPC AC 271950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
MOB 65 NNE MOB 30 SSW TCL 50 S MSL 20 NE MSL 45 S BNA 35 WNW CSV 25
ENE CSV 15 SW TYS 45 ENE RMG 25 WNW AHN 10 N AGS 50 NNE SAV 30 ENE
SAV 20 NE SSI 30 E VLD 35 ENE AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15
S FMY ...CONT... 35 S MOB 40 SE MEI 20 NNE CBM 35 WNW MSL 15 SW CKV
30 SE SDF 55 W HTS 10 SE HTS 25 NW BLF 35 NNW GSO 30 NNE RDU 25 SE
ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 20 SE S06
55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE GPT 40 N GPT 35
W LUL 45 NNE HEZ 40 ENE MLU 25 SE PBF 40 SSW JBR 30 E POF 35 SE MVN
40 SSE MIE 30 N MGW 25 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
PORTIONS OF AL/TN EWD ACROSS MUCH OF GA...NRN FL AND SRN SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
THE CNTRL GULF COAST/ERN TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DOWNSTREAM REGION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD
ACROSS MS INTO AL. LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS APPEAR TO BE RESPONDING TO
THIS AS MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
OVER NWRN AL /N OF TCL/. MAIN WARM FRONT /LIKELY DELINEATING
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW/ EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND INTO
ERN KY...WHILE COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OR VERY SLOWLY
ADVANCING ACROSS WRN AL. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
SERN/E-CNTRL AL INTO GA HAS REINFORCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR
MGM ESEWD THROUGH ABY TO AYS. THUS...SYSTEM WARM SECTOR CURRENTLY IS
LIMITED TO AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL AL SWD
THROUGH CNTRL AL...THEN BROADENING CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SRN AL...FAR
SRN GA AND FL. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR THE AL/TN...TO 1500
J/KG OVER THE FL PNHDL /REF 18Z BHM SOUNDING/.

...MIDDLE TN/AL EWD ACROSS GA...NRN FL INTO SC...
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS THE SERN STATES 
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD MORE RAPIDLY TONIGHT. BROAD AREA OF
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
20-30 M/S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN THREAT OF SUPERCELLS FROM THE NERN GULF TO N OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND WEDGE FRONT. SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT
FOR A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE/ FROM SRN/CNTRL AL EWD INTO
SRN/CNTRL GA AND POSSIBLY SRN SC LATE TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD
418.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM NRN AL INTO ERN TN. THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...DEGREE OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY E/NE OF SURFACE LOW TRACK/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ WILL SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...TO N OF
RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEDGE FRONT. STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 03/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.