[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271219
SWODY1
SPC AC 271217

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
PNS 40 ESE LUL 15 SSW MEI 15 W CBM 35 NNE TUP 60 WSW BNA 40 SE BWG
40 NNW CSV 40 SSW LOZ 35 E TYS 10 NW AVL 15 W CLT 30 WNW FLO 30 N
CHS 40 WSW CHS 25 WNW SAV 35 NNW AYS VLD 30 SSE TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
GPT 30 NE MSY 20 SE MCB 45 W JAN 25 ESE GLH 25 ENE MEM 45 NE MKL 20
SE SDF 55 SE LUK 10 SE HTS 30 W BLF 30 SSW BLF 35 S PSK 40 NNE RDU
25 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 ENE LFK
20 SSW GGG 40 E PRX 20 SSE UNO 15 E MVN 45 SSE MIE 30 WSW LBE 25 SE
NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW FCA 35 ESE 3TH
55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
ACROSS ALABAMA...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...A SMALL PART OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM MS TO SERN KY MUCH OF NC ERN SC AND MUCH OF FL...

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GULF COAST...TN VALLEY...AND CAROLINAS TODAY...

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER TX. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION.  STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND LARGE
AREA OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM
MS TO THE CAROLINA COAST.

...LA/AR/MS/TN THIS MORNING...
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UPPER FORCING IS NOW OVER CENTRAL LA. 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS AXIS OVERNIGHT
/REF WW 95/.  STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AR/EASTERN LA/WESTERN MS.  THIS
AREA IS POST-FRONTAL...WITH HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION.  ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
TN BY LATE MORNING...WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

...AL/GA/FL THIS MORNING...
LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER
MUCH OF GA AND SOUTHEAST AL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS /REF WW 96/.  VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...MS/AL/GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON...
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PARTS OF MS AND AL WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
SUNSHINE TODAY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG.  APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY
STRONG BENEATH 70-90 KNOT 500MB FLOW.  COMBINATION OF AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FROM EASTERN MS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AL INTO GA AND WESTERN SC.  PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN ALSO APPEAR
TO BE AT GREATER RISK AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.  A FAST-MOVING
SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
LIKELY.  IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
LINE...POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED IN...AND AHEAD OF THE LINE.  ACTIVITY SHOULD RACE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA/SC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

...CAROLINAS TONIGHT...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS AFTER DARK TONIGHT.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY IN
THIS AREA...VERY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE. 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS INTO NC
AFTER 06Z.

...FL TONIGHT...
TAIL END OF SQUALL LINE SHOULD SWEEP INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL
TONIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..CARBIN/HART/BANACOS.. 03/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.