[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270610
SWODY1
SPC AC 270606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
PNS TCL 35 ENE TUP 40 NNW MSL 35 E BNA 10 ESE LOZ 30 SSE 5I3 25 ESE
TRI 40 ENE HKY 20 WNW SOP 20 SSW FAY 25 ENE ILM ...CONT... 10 ENE
JAX 20 SSW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
GPT 50 N MEI 35 ENE MEM 45 SE PAH 20 ESE OWB 25 WNW LEX 45 E LUK 25
S UNI 15 WSW BKW 15 SW ROA 45 SSE CHO 40 S WAL ...CONT... 10 ESE MLB
30 S FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 ENE LFK
20 SSW GGG 40 E PRX 20 SSE UNO 15 E MVN 45 SSE MIE 30 WSW LBE 25 SE
NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW FCA 35 ESE 3TH
55 SSW 27U 30 W EKO 10 NNW BIH 30 NNW BFL 35 W PRB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AL...PARTS OF
MIDDLE AND ERN TN...SERN KY...SRN NC...CD...GA...AND NRN FL AND THE
FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST /
TN VALLEY / MID AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH / DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM TX /
OK EWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WITH TIME...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INCLUDING 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK.  

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER NRN MS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN BY MIDDAY...AND THEN SHOULD DEEPEN / MOVE
NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. 
COMBINATION OF WARM / MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH VERY STRONG WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

...SOUTHEAST / MID SOUTH REGION TO THE MID / SRN ATLANTIC COAST...
WIDESPREAD STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF AL / GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BROAD ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...WITH WEAKER
CONVECTION SPREADING AS FAR NEWD AS THE CAROLINAS. 
MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING ACROSS MS NEAR COLD FRONT /
WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET.

COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
UVV ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SHOULD ALLOW STORMS OVER MS
TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  THOUGH A
SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MIDDAY / EARLY
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS AL / MIDDLE TN...ISOLATED STORMS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS
REGION...THOUGH FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDIRECTIONAL ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
STRONG / DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS A
LARGE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS...COMBINATION OF WEAK VEERING AND RAPIDLY-INCREASING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR
TORNADOES -- BOTH WITHIN SQUALL LINE AND WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL
STORMS WITHIN WARM SECTOR.  

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD INTO GA
AND ACROSS ERN TN / SERN KY WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EVENING -- INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

..GOSS.. 03/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.