[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261951
SWODY1
SPC AC 261950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
GLS 50 ENE LFK 45 E SHV 30 NW MLU 35 SW UOX 35 WSW MSL 25 S HSV 30
WNW LGC 25 SSE CSG 15 SE ABY 35 E TLH 30 WNW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N
PBI 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 20 SSW PSX 50 S CLL 60 NE CLL 15 ENE GGG 30
SSE TXK 30 NW ELD 30 WSW PBF 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV
20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP 40 SW GNT
35 ENE 4BL 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 25 SW PUB 55 NNW TCC 55
ENE CVS 30 E PVW 20 NNE SPS 20 NNW FSM 20 ESE PAH 25 S SDF 25 ENE
LEX 25 ESE HTS 10 SW BKW 45 SSW PSK 30 W RDU 35 ESE ECG ...CONT...
50 NNE BRO 30 WNW LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
FAR SERN TX EWD ACROSS LA AND PORTIONS OF MS...AL...GA AND FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS LA...MS...AL INTO SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL...

...E TX ACROSS GULF COAST INTO SERN CONUS...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z LIX SOUNDING INDICATE THAT
INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD FROM SERN TX/SRN LA EWD INTO
SRN GA. LATEST TENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA AS WELL AS SHORT-TERM
RUC/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD WITH TIME ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT NWD INTO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LA...MS AND AL. REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE
THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE MARKEDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MORE SO TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK
FROM THE SERN TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MS DELTA REGION.

APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL OCCUR ALONG/E OF THIS LOW
TRACK TONIGHT FROM SRN/CNTRL LA INTO SRN/CNTRL MS. ADDITIONAL
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY EWD ALONG WARM FRONT WITHIN
INTENSIFYING WAA REGIME FROM SRN/CNTRL AL INTO SRN GA/NRN FL.
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL MAY
ALSO DEVELOP N OF WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS TN VALLEY...NEWD INTO
NRN GA/SC.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL
ALONG THE GULF COAST...PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 400.

...NM INTO FAR WRN TX...
DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -24 TO
-26 C AT 500 MB HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HAIL THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 399.

..MEAD.. 03/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.