[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261710
SWODY1
SPC AC 261708

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
GLS 40 ESE CLL 35 NW LFK 15 S ELD 50 NNW GWO 45 S MKL 15 E HSV 35 NW
AUO 25 SSE CSG 55 WNW AYS 15 SE VLD 30 WNW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
VCT 45 NNW NIR 25 WNW HDO 50 N DRT 45 SSW ABI 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15
ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE
...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT
...CONT... 70 SE ELP 40 SW GNT 35 ENE 4BL 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50
WNW COS 25 SW PUB 55 NNW TCC 55 ENE CVS 30 E PVW 20 NNE SPS 20 NNW
FSM 20 ESE PAH 25 S SDF 25 ENE LEX 25 ESE HTS 10 SW BKW 45 SSW PSK
30 W RDU 35 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ERN
TX...MUCH OF LA...EXTREME SERN AR...MUCH OF MS AND AL...FL PANHANDLE
AND SWRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX EWD ACROSS
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TO THE SERN STATES...

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SERN
AR...MS...AL...FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING PER WV IMAGERY WILL TRACK ESEWD
TOWARD WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AMPLIFY/DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD
TO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY.  LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND CENTRAL TX WILL PROVIDE
FORCING FOR ONGOING AND NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SERN STATES WWD INTO TX. 
ADDITIONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /90-120 METERS PER 12
HOURS/ WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SPREAD EWD.

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK
AREAS A LITTLE FARTHER WNWWD.  ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW OVER SE TX BY 21Z
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE WARM
SECTOR.  STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...POTENTIAL REACHING
SERN AL/SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE GIVEN THAT THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ WILL NOSE INTO THIS AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
TX COAST AND OVER SRN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE....WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL TX. AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO SLY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND LEAD TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE WARM FRONT AND RICH GULF
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND OVER THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
EXPECTED FROM LA EWD TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  A
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER SE TX
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 35 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ERN HALF OF TX...EXCLUDING DEEP S TX WHERE A CAP SHOULD
PRECLUDE ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
LOCATED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.  HOWEVER...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN
FLANK...GENERALLY ESE OF SAT/AUS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE GREATER SBCAPE IS
EXPECTED.

AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS TX...REACHING LA TO THE NWRN
GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL.  THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

...AL/FL/GA/SC...
LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT COMBINED
WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES TROUGH AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FL INTO THE SERN STATES.  SURFACE
BASED STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
NRN FL AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THREAT WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THREATS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AL/SWRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 03/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.