[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261256
SWODY1
SPC AC 261254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
GLS 40 ESE CLL 20 WNW LFK 40 SSW SHV 40 S ELD 40 NW GWO 45 NNE TUP
15 E HSV 40 S ANB 30 SSE CSG 55 WNW AYS 15 SE VLD 30 WNW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N
PBI 15 S SRQ ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 50 S AUS 35 NW HDO 60 N DRT 45
SSW ABI 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15 ENE PBF 15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20
WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 40 N GUP 30
NNW CEZ 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 10 SW PUB 35 SSW DHT 35 WSW
CDS 20 NNE SPS 50 N HOT 30 W HOP 15 NE SDF 30 SSW PKB 50 NNW SSU 15
SSE SSU 25 S PSK 30 W RDU 30 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF EAST TX...LA...MS...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...GULF COAST REGION...AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IS
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF
LA...MS...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS TX TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
TX/LA/MS AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW...ALONG WITH INFLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...TX THIS MORNING...
LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOW OVER TX WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SPREAD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION. 
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.  SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.

...FL/GA/SC THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
EASTERN EXTENSION OF SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS FL AND INTO PARTS OF AL/GA/SC DURING THE DAY. 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH OF TLH. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST STATES...
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...AND THE
GULF COAST STATES.  RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS LIKELY SOUTH OF
FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S...AND SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  THE WESTERN EXTENSION
OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS LIKELY TO BE THE
INITIATION POINT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND EVENTUALLY AL.  SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INTO A LARGE SHIELD OF THUNDERSTORMS /ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/ LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC AND NORTH FL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS.  A CONTINUED THREAT OF
SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION.  GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND 90-100 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS
REGION.

..HART/BANACOS.. 03/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.