[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260550
SWODY1
SPC AC 260549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
GLS 40 ESE CLL 20 WNW LFK 45 SSE SHV 15 W MLU 40 NW GWO 10 WSW TUP
25 SE ATL 55 SSW AGS 10 NNE AYS 15 W CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
VCT 10 NNE SAT 50 ENE JCT 10 SSE SEP 40 W TYR 25 SE TXK 15 ENE PBF
15 N MEM 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE ...CONT...
15 N PBI 15 S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 35 NNE GUP
30 NNW CEZ 25 NNW MTJ 10 NE ASE 50 WNW COS 10 SW PUB 35 SSW DHT 35
WSW CDS 35 SW SPS 20 NNW PRX 10 WSW LIT 25 ESE JBR 35 ESE PAH 15 NE
SDF 30 SSW PKB 50 NNW SSU 15 SSE SSU 25 S PSK 30 W RDU 30 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN GA AND
THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
CNTRL TX TO THE SC COAST...

***A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF STRONG
TORNADOES***


...GULF STATES...

MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS POISED TO SURGE INLAND AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. 
THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL INITIALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
BUT CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.  A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER SPEED
MAX...APPROACHING 100KT...WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TX...THEN EJECT NEWD INTO LA LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVER LA/MS AFTER 27/00Z AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS LIFTS NEWD ALONG
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG EXIT REGION.

IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITHIN
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS.  00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BROADENING ZONE OF
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE REAL ESTATE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS EXPECTED
ASCENT...DETAILS AND TIMING OF INITIATION ARE MORE NEBULOUS. 
REGARDLESS...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MAY
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SIGNAL IN THIS EVENINGS DATA IS THE EXPECTED
TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING.  IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG EJECTING UPPER SPEED
MAX...LLJ SHOULD INCREASE AND FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND TORNADOES.  ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE A LULL IN SEVERE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...WHEN THE ASCENT REGION SPREADS ACROSS
TX INTO LA RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RECOVERY  AHEAD OF
SFC LOW WILL DICTATE THE NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY INTO
THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY REGION.  TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 03/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.