[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260054
SWODY1
SPC AC 260052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
GLH 45 SW GLH 55 ENE LFK 20 ENE CLL 35 N SAT 25 N DRT 65 SSE MAF 50
E BGS 35 SSE SPS 40 S MLC 45 N HOT 50 NNE LIT 40 W MEM 30 NE GLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PNS 20 WNW PNS
45 NNW CEW 10 SE TOI 15 NE ABY 10 SSE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CHS 20 SSW AND
20 NE BHM 10 WNW MEI 30 ENE MCB 45 WSW HUM ...CONT... 20 SSW PSX 45
SW HDO 45 ESE P07 25 SE INK 40 NW CNM 45 NE SAD 40 E PHX PRC 35 W
GCN 35 ESE MLF 50 NNW PUC 40 SSW RKS 45 WSW LAR 35 ENE DEN 40 NE LAA
45 S DDC 15 NE OKC 20 WSW MKO 10 W HRO 40 NNW POF 20 S MVN 25 N EVV
30 NE SDF 20 WNW HTS 30 NNW SSU 25 SE CHO 40 SSW WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO AR...

...TX TO AR...

WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OF
CENTRAL TX PER RECENT INCREASE/EXPANSION OF CONVECTION NORTH OF JCT.
 THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX THIS EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE
SRN PLAINS.

00Z SOUNDING FROM DRT SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TX PER CAPPING LAYER NEAR 850 MB. AS A RESULT...LARGE
SCALE FORCING ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL PROVE MORE EFFICIENT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  LIFTING PARCELS AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG. 
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS AN EXPANDING
CLUSTER EVOLVES INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NERN TX.

...FL...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF FL THIS EVENING.  LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PROVE
SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE TONIGHT WHEN WARM ADVECTION COULD PROVE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.  VERY MOIST
PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION THUS MINIMAL
ASCENT/CONVERGENCE WILL BE REQUIRED TO AID TSTM POTENTIAL ONCE UPPER
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 03/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.