[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251630
SWODY1
SPC AC 251628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
PFN 40 SSW ABY 15 ESE ABY 50 SE MCN 50 WNW SAV 25 SSE CHS ...CONT...
15 SSW FMY 20 S PBI 15 SSW FMY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW
LFK 25 SSE JCT 10 SSW SJT 45 ENE BGS 25 S SPS 25 NNW PRX 30 ESE PGO
60 NW LIT 45 S UNO 10 ENE POF 20 N OWB 10 WSW JKL 10 NE HSS 40 ESE
CHA 20 SE HSV 25 SW UOX 40 SW MLU 40 WSW LFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 40 SW HDO
70 SSW SJT MAF 35 NNE CNM 45 NE SAD 10 NNW PHX 25 ENE LAS 40 N U31
65 WSW BOI 15 E S80 20 WNW DLN 25 ENE RWL 35 ENE DEN 40 NE LAA 45 S
DDC 15 NE OKC 20 WSW MKO 10 W HRO 15 E VIH 10 NE ALN 25 SW MTO 35
ESE BMG 40 WSW HTS 15 WSW SSU 45 W RIC 40 SSW WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL AND SERN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TN VALLEY WSWWD  ACROSS
PORTION OF MS  VALLEY TO CENTRAL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG TROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DROPS SEWD WITH UPPER LOW OVER NM
AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
TX/OK BY 12Z SAT.  DOWNSTREAM STRONG WLYS EXTEND EWD ACROSS LWR MS
VALLEY AND TO SE COAST.  FLAT MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN WLYS
MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO OFF CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING.

PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD VICINITY TN/KY BORDER THEN SWWD
THRU NWRN AR/SERN OK INTO SWRN TX.  LITTLE PUSH ON FRONT E OF MS
RIVER WITH SWD MOTION W OF THE RIVER. TX PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL
TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SCENTRAL TX AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH.

THE VERY RICH GULF AIRMASS RESIDES TO S OF ACTIVE CONVECTION SRN
GA/NRN FL WWD JUST OFF GULF COAST INTO S TX.

...SERN STATES...
ONGOING SEVERE STORMS NRN FL/SERN GA WILL CONTINUE AND DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WHERE A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS AVAILABLE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND HELICITY WITH
THE 40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND 25-30 KT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF A SUPERCELL THREAT.  WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING
TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG AS WARM SECTOR TEMPS S OF BOUNDARY IN FL CLIMB
INTO THE 80S...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED SHEAR IN VAD DATA.  MOST ACTIVE STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING.

...TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TX...
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY AS TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IN TN
VALLEY PORTION OF RISK AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 
ALSO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL E OF TN VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER STRONG HEATING VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT IN MUCAPES
RISING TO 1000 J/KG WHICH WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER/UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND 7C/KM LAPSE RATES.,  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE BRIEF
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD
ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM CENTRAL TX EWD INTO NRN LA/AR S OF FRONTAL ZONE.  STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL/ERN TX WITH THE
STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING AVAILABILITY OF GULF MOISTURE. 
SUFFICIENT SHEAR UNDER THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO THE BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NERN TX BY
THIS EVENING WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND
MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.

..HALES/GUYER.. 03/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.