[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250610
SWODY1
SPC AC 250608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW
LFK 20 WNW AUS 45 SW BWD 30 NNE ABI 20 SW SPS 20 SSE ADM 35 SSW PGO
45 NNW HOT 25 W UNO 60 SE VIH 40 WSW EVV 45 W LOZ 15 N TYS 40 ESE
CHA 20 SE HSV 45 W CBM 35 S MLU 45 SW LFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
PNS 25 WSW PNS 40 N CEW 35 SSW CSG 35 SE MCN 40 ENE SAV ...CONT...
15 SSW FMY 35 N PBI 15 SSW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 55 SSW JCT
10 ESE MAF 45 NNW HOB 45 NE SAD 10 NNW PHX 30 SSE LAS 40 N U31 65
WSW BOI 15 E S80 20 WNW DLN 25 ENE RWL 35 S LIC 35 SSW GAG 35 ENE
FSI 30 NNW MLC 45 SSW JLN 50 SW SZL 35 S IRK 20 SW SPI 35 SSE BMG 30
N JKL SSU 35 WNW RIC 10 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB
40 ESE MEI 25 NW MEI 30 W JAN 10 SSW ESF 35 SE BPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY...SWWD INTO
NRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL INTO SRN
GA...

...MID MS/TN VALLEY...

LATE DAY1 CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS TRANSLATED INTO EXTREME ERN OK/NWRN
AR/SWRN MO AHEAD OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH FAST WLY
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.  OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW WITH STRONG WLY FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.  IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THEN REINTENSIFY ALONG E-W BOUNDARY AS
DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES BAROCLINIC ZONE.  STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM IN LOWEST 3 KM...WILL FAVOR QUICK
MOVING BOW-TYPE FEATURES FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE
WARM SECTOR.  IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL SEEMS A GOOD BET GIVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

...TX...

FARTHER SW ACROSS TX...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ATOP RETREATING
WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES.  00Z MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING
LLJ ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AFTER DARK IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SYSTEM.  MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
OF HIGHER QUALITY THAN EARLIER SYSTEMS THE LAST FEW DAYS.  PARCELS
LIFTED NEAR 850 MB SHOULD EASILY YIELD CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN
STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER/MCS INTO NERN TX BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...SRN GA/NRN FL...

STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
GENERATING SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH THE SRN
STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING.  BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS LLJ
VEERS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THIS REGION.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE.  06Z RADAR DATA
SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE COAST.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM. 
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LEADING ELEVATED
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS RISE THE PROSPECTS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS OR PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES BECOMES A GREATER RISK.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.