[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250039
SWODY1
SPC AC 250037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
TXK 50 SSW PRX 30 SW DUA 45 ESE OKC 35 NNE OKC PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE
VIH 20 SW CGI 35 NNE MEM 20 SW LIT 20 W TXK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 50 NW CEW
35 E TOI 40 NE MGR 10 ESE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS
55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 30 SSW HSI 25 SE OLU
40 NE OMA 20 ESE MLI 20 ENE BMI 25 S DNV 15 SSE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE
BNA 20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 15 ESE MWL 35 WSW ADM 25
NNW FSI 65 E AMA 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W
SAC OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/ERN OK INTO SRN MO
AND AR...

...ERN OK TO NERN AR...

CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OK.  VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATE PLUME HAS SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOIST SECTOR WHERE
CONVECTION IS NOW DEEPENING.  00Z SOUNDINGS FROM FWD AND OUN
STRONGLY SUPPORT THESE TRENDS. LOCAL ALGORITHMS SUGGEST MOST
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL DIFFICULTY GENERATING HAIL
WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION.  ALTHOUGH
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BOTH
ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT NW OF OKC...AND ACROSS SCNTRL OK
AHEAD OF DRYLINE...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NERN/ECNTRL OK INTO NRN AR.  IN THE SHORT TERM...LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

...FL...

WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...WELL WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA.  WITH TIME WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING MARITIME AIRMASS TO
RETURN TO THIS REGION. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.  HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD INITIALLY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REDUCING THE
SEVERE THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 03/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.