[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241953
SWODY1
SPC AC 241951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
TXK 30 SW DUA 20 ESE OKC PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE VIH 20 SW CGI 35 NNE MEM
20 SW LIT 20 W TXK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS
55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 30 SSW HSI 25 SE OLU
40 NE OMA 20 ESE MLI 20 ENE BMI 25 S DNV 15 SSE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE
BNA 20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 25 ENE SEP 30 ESE SPS 10
S CSM 40 SW GAG 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W
SAC OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 35 N CEW 20
ENE DHN 20 SSE ABY 10 ESE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO SRN MO/NRN
AR...

...CNTRL/ERN OK EWD INTO AR/SRN MO...
EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN OK WITH
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX /E OF ABI/ AND WARM
FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH E-CNTRL OK AND SRN AR. WHILE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...DIABATIC HEATING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL
OK WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

CONTINUED HEATING E OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH WRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT CAP REMOVAL FOR
STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL OR
ERN OK. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS OVER SWRN MO INTO
NERN OK MAY BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED AS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATS/MOISTENS WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. GIVEN WIND PROFILES
OBSERVED ON LATEST REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS THAT LIMITED
MOISTURE/RELATIVELY HIGH LFC HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT OVERALL THREAT.

STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR A COMPLEX TONIGHT OVER SRN
MO/NRN AR ALONG EWD-MIGRATING LLJ AXIS. RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED WITH TIME ATOP DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...WITH LARGE
HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 0376.

...FL...
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE WELL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE OVER THE LOWER ERN PENINSULA...AS
WELL AS RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FROM SE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO N
OF FMY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S S OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND W OF SEA BREEZE HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WITH A WEAK CAP.
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT NWD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO SRN GA WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME. NWD RECOVERY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS COUPLED WITH THE
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

..MEAD.. 03/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.