[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241630
SWODY1
SPC AC 241629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
TXK 30 SW DUA 20 ESE OKC 20 WNW PNC 35 W CNU 50 SE VIH 20 SW CGI 35
NNE MEM 20 SW LIT 20 W TXK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIL 25 WNW DLS
55 SSW S80 35 S 27U 25 W EVW 40 W LAR 40 SE SNY 25 SSW RSL 30 NW MHK
30 ENE FNB 25 E IRK 20 W SPI 15 ENE MTO 30 S BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE BNA
20 SE UOX 45 W GLH 35 NNW SHV 40 W TYR 25 ENE SEP 30 ESE SPS 10 S
CSM 40 SW GAG 45 SSW CAO 20 ENE SAF 30 SW GUP IGM 20 NNW NID 40 W
SAC OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 35 N CEW 20
ENE DHN 20 SSE ABY 10 ESE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN OK/SE
KS...CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SRN MO AND WRN/NRN AR....

...OK/NW AR/SW MO AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF NW OK/EXTREME SW KS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD
TO NRN OK TODAY...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVER NRN AR/SRN MO BY LATE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NM AND
FAR W TX.  IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...A SURFACE WARM
FRONT IS RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF...WITH THE
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS CONFINED TO AREAS S OF ABOUT 25 N. 
FARTHER N...A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS TX...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST...AND LOWER
50S INTO N CENTRAL TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO
OK THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE
IN CENTRAL OK.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL OK
INVOF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT...WITH STORMS THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE SPREADING EWD INTO E/NE OK...SW MO...AND
WRN AR TONIGHT.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AT BEST MODEST INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUCH THREAT.

...NE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT...
MUCH OF FL IS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS AS OF LATE MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS FL
AND TO THE NE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE PRONOUNCED WAA REGIME.  INSTABILITY BASED NEAR
THE SURFACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
RISK...MAINLY OVERNIGHT.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.