[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241358
SWODY1
SPC AC 241357

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
PRX 30 SW DUA 10 SW OKC 35 N END 50 W CNU 10 ESE TBN 20 W POF 15 SSW
JBR 35 WNW LIT 40 ESE PRX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW MOB 45 S SEM
35 ENE TOI 10 ENE ABY 25 SSW VLD 25 NNW GNV 15 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIL 25 WNW DLS
55 SSW S80 40 SE 27U 15 SW JAC 20 WNW RWL 40 SE SNY 50 NNE HLC 30 N
CNK 45 NE FNB 10 SW OTM 25 W PIA 10 E CMI 25 ESE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE
BNA 30 SSE JAN 40 NW BTR 35 SE LFK 15 NE ACT 35 S FTW 30 ESE FSI 25
NNW CDS 45 E ROW 40 SSW 4CR 75 SSW GNT 35 WNW IGM 55 N NID SAC ACV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO SRN MO/NRN
AR...

...RETRANSMITTED...

...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARKS...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AS
LARGER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BROAD ZONE
OF FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
WITH 100+ KT H25 JET DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN TX/FAR SRN OK
TODAY...BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.  AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WILL MOVE STEADILY SSEWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX BY LATE
TODAY. A SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER
DEFINED OVER OK LATER TODAY ALONG INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND N-S
ORIENTED DRY LINE/TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX /ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR/.


THOUGH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETTING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE SRN
PLAINS...THIS SYSTEM COMES QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK.  RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY. 
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
DEW POINTS /NOW CONFINED OVER SERN TX/ RAPIDLY NWD INTO ERN OK
TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UNDER COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/AOB -20C AT H5/.  RATHER HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
DRY LINE AFTER 21Z OVER CENTRAL OK AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY AS LP-SUPERCELLS.  HAVE PULLED LOW PROBABILITIES
SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL TX AS A CONDITIONAL
THREAT...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN CAP OVER THIS AREA AND
FAIL TO GENERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
TONIGHT.  OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME EAST OF
THE DRY LINE INTO SRN MO/WRN AR THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR WELL AFTER DARK.  FEED OF VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAINTAIN LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL INTO THE LATE
NIGHT ALONG SWRN PORTION OF DEVELOPING MCS.

...FL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE IN TWO MODES DURING THE PERIOD...1)
WITH ANY AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL FL AND 2) WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INTO NRN FL AND THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN MODEST ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE/SEA BREEZES AND NEAR
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALSO WARRANT LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES INTO NRN FL LATER TONIGHT ALONG 30 KT SWLY LLJ.  LATER
STORMS WILL HAVE PRIMARY THREAT OF SOME HAIL AS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.