[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240542
SWODY1
SPC AC 240540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
DUA 40 NNE ADM 20 SSW END 30 SSE P28 15 E HUT 45 SW OJC 30 WSW JEF
20 WNW MDH 35 SE PAH 30 NNW TUP 30 SE GLH 35 SSE ELD 35 SSW PRX 10
WSW DUA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIL 25 WNW DLS
55 SSW S80 40 SE 27U 15 SW JAC 20 WNW RWL 40 SE SNY 50 NNE HLC 30 N
CNK 45 NE FNB 10 SW OTM 25 W PIA 10 E CMI 25 ESE BMG 40 S SDF 25 SSE
BNA 30 SSE JAN 40 NW BTR 35 SE LFK 55 SW TYR 15 SSE FTW 30 ESE FSI
20 NE LTS 25 SW AMA 15 SE SAF 50 N INW 20 ESE LAS 55 N NID SAC ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW MOB 45 S SEM
35 ENE TOI 10 ENE ABY 25 NNW CTY 10 SW GNV 15 N DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY FROM SERN KS/ERN OK INTO
SRN MO/AR...

...SRN PLAINS/MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A LOW LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO...IN LINE
WITH EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 25/00Z.

MODIFIED WRN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS NOW RETURNING
NWWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
WELL INTO THE 50S...AND EVEN NEAR 60 ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. 
SUSTAINED ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW LOWER 50S DEW POINTS TO RETURN TO
ERN OK BY PEAK HEATING AS COLD UPPER TROUGH...H5 TEMPS LESS THAN
MINUS 20C...MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO HEAT RAPIDLY OVER
THE PLAINS WEST OF I-35 ACROSS OK/TX.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
EVOLVE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM...AND CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ACROSS
OK...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN INTO ECNTRL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
AND A SLOWLY VEERING LLJ ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION FAVOR AN
EWD...UPWARD EVOLVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EASILY SPREAD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR WHERE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL...POSSIBLY
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...FL...

QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS SRN FL EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE WEST COAST.  THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARMER WATERS. 
WITH TIME THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA AND
POSSIBLY FOCUS A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
CONVERGENCE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. 
IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ATTAINED A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
ADDED ACROSS THIS REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION INTO THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL ALLOW MUCH HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THIS
REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASING ASCENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INFLUENCE OF FLATTENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE TN VALLEY.  SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS THIS REGION IF THEY DEVELOP.

..DARROW.. 03/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.