[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240047
SWODY1
SPC AC 240045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
HSE 20 ESE GSB 15 NNW GSB 35 N RWI 20 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SRQ 30 N MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRE 35 ESE CLT
40 NE HKY 20 NNE ROA 45 SW DCA 15 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 15 W DLS
75 NNW BNO 40 SSW BKE 40 S BOI OWY 10 WNW EKO 60 N ELY 25 SE ENV MLD
RIW DGW 25 W BBW 25 WNW FNB FLV 45 S OJC 55 ESE ICT 30 SSW LBL 20
SSW LVS 30 W GNT FLG 45 NNW EED 40 NNW NID 10 NE MER 40 WSW SAC 45 S
EKA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF ERN NC...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

WELL FOCUSED EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SPREADING ACROSS VA/NC
ATTM...PER RAPIDLY ADVANCING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING.  ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FORCING...EARLIER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY HAVE
WEAKENED...APPARENTLY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS ARE TRAVERSING EWD ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARY THAT HAS DROPPED
INTO NRN NC.  STRONG STORMS MAY YET EVOLVE ALONG THIS ZONE BUT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IT SEEMS LIKELY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUB SEVERE THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

...SACRAMENTO VALLEY...

LOW TOPPED...POSSIBLE SUPERCELL...HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEHAMA
COUNTY IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND IS DRIFTING SSEWD MAXIMIZING
INFLOW/HAIL THREAT.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NE OF THIS
STORM AND WILL SOON DRIFT DOWN THE VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN VERY STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IN
EXCESS OF 9C/KM...WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. 
GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING PROFILE WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINED...IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN ROBUST ENOUGH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT BEFORE COOLING
STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DARROW.. 03/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.