[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231953
SWODY1
SPC AC 231952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
ILM 40 WNW ILM FAY 10 NW SOP CLT 10 ESE HSS 25 WSW TRI 35 E 5I3 15
SSE CRW 35 NNW SSU 15 NNE SSU LYH RIC 35 SSW WAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
PBI 30 WNW MIA 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 W FMY 30 S AGR 15 N VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 45 N SAV AGS
AND 65 ESE CHA CHA BWG 10 NE SDF 20 S CMH 30 SSW HLG 10 NW MGW 30 W
MRB 35 W DCA 15 SSE BWI 15 N ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 50 SSE SEA
YKM ALW 10 WNW S80 60 SSE S80 15 ESE BOI 60 W OWY WMC 60 ENE U31 ELY
ENV MLD RIW DGW AIA LNK 45 N STJ SZL 50 N JLN 30 WSW EMP 40 ENE DDC
LBL CAO LVS 10 SSE GNT INW 55 N IGM NID 30 SW BIH MER 50 WNW SAC 55
W RBL ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SRQ 30 N MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE FROM PARTS
OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN FL....

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
AT MID AFTERNOON...SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS RAPIDLY SHIFTING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
OUTER BANKS AREA WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SHORTLY.

A LINGERING CONVECTIVE THREAT REMAINS...THOUGH.  MID-LEVEL COOLING
AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA.  THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IN BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING.  LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEPENING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE CURVING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  INSTABILITY IS NOT
STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/ISOLATED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CELLS.

...FLORIDA...
DAYTIME HEATING IN MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH...IS PROVIDED BY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH PERSISTS OFF THE GULF COAST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF FORT MEYERS.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE MIGRATING
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND MAY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD POOL...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
AND INCREASING INHIBITION TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AND WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN
WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING
WILL OCCUR AT BASE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.  ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL BE BASED AROUND 700 MB...WHERE TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT MAY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE KANSAS/ NEBRASKA BORDER.

...WESTERN STATES...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO...
BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON/NORTHWEST NEVADA/PARTS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AHEAD OF CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.

OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN RESPONSE TO
HEATING/OROGRAPHY...BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...ALONG/NORTH
OF STRONG BROADLY CYCLONIC SOUTHERN BRANCH JET.

..KERR.. 03/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.