[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231632
SWODY1
SPC AC 231631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
CRE 30 ENE FLO 40 ESE CLT 20 SSW GSO DAN 50 SW RIC 40 SSW WAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
SSU 10 NW PSK 40 ESE TRI 15 W HSS 10 NNW TYS 25 NW LOZ 25 ESE LEX 40
WSW HTS 20 NW CRW 30 ENE CRW 30 NNW SSU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
FMY 15 NNE AGR 10 ENE MLB ...CONT... PBI 55 SSE FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TLH 50 ENE ABY
15 SE AND 40 ENE CHA 45 ENE BWG 15 ENE SDF 25 SSE CMH 30 SSW HLG 10
NW MGW 30 W MRB 35 W DCA 15 SSE BWI 15 N ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 65 SW PDT
70 E BKE 40 W SUN 25 WNW PIH 30 NNW WRL 65 SSE 81V 30 WSW MHN 10 ENE
LNK 45 N STJ 15 SW SZL 50 N JLN 30 WSW EMP 40 ENE DDC 10 WSW LBL 35
SSW CAO 30 N 4CR 45 ESE SOW 40 SSW GCN 50 ENE LAS 20 ESE DRA 35 SW
DRA 55 NNE NID 50 SSE BIH 30 SW BIH 30 N FAT MER 10 SW SCK 50 WNW
SAC 55 W RBL ACV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN TN/KY
TO WV....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
NC/EXTREME SRN VA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
FL....

...CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS
SHOULD CLEAR FROM W TO E FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE INVOF THE WEAK LOW NOW
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN N CENTRAL NC...AND
IMMEDIATELY S OF THIS LOW ALONG THE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH.  RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F...WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN KY/WV TODAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING FROM ERN TN NWD ACROSS ERN KY
INTO SW WV.  CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN
KY AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND SBCAPE INCREASES TO 500-1000
J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR E OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A
LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER STORMS /SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE MINI SUPERCELLS/.

...CENTRAL/S FL TODAY...
A SHORT PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
FL THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HEATING IMMEDIATELY E/SE OF THESE STORMS
IS BEING LIMITED BY HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS...THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
S FL ARE DESTABILIZING QUICKLY PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. WHILE THE COMBINATION OF
SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/HAIL THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
WELL N OF THIS AREA.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.