[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231328
SWODY1
SPC AC 231327

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
PBI 45 SSE FMY ...CONT... 15 NW PIE 10 SSE DAB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
JAX 35 SSE VLD 30 NE MGR 45 WNW AGS 40 E CLT 30 NNW RWI ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
PSK 40 E TRI 25 WSW HSS CSV 35 ESE BWG 40 SSW SDF 20 NNE LEX 15 WNW
HTS 20 ESE CRW 20 NNW PSK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 45 WNW PDT
60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 40 SW MCK 40 SW GCK 45 E TCC 30 N 4CR
50 SSW SOW IGM 15 NNE DRA 45 NNE BIH 55 SSE TVL 15 WNW MER MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AQQ 25 N ABY
25 N ATL 50 SW BNA 30 SW EVV 25 SE HUF 10 W MIE 25 WSW CAK 15 NW LBE
25 ESE AOO 40 NW ILG 25 ENE PHL 15 ENE BDR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

...ERN GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
12Z SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS WELL
INLAND FROM THE SRN CHESAPEAKE REGION SWWD INTO THE UPLANDS OF SC. 
SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN INFLUX OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY SHIFT ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT REGION OF NC/VA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH ONGOING
CONVECTION WITHIN PLUME OF LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS REGION HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY WEAK OVERNIGHT...STRONG/DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  IN
ADDITION...NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS JUST NOW MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE.  THUS...REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN
FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING
AIDS DESTABILIZATION.  12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...WITH PRONOUNCED LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP
FROM ERN GA EWD THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY AS
THEY INTERACT WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  SEVERE THREAT MAY
ENCOMPASS MANY FACETS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...AS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS QUICKLY ENEWD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL FL...
UNFORTUNATELY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FL ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS
AHEAD OF ONGOING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHIFTING ESEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING.  /REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 75 AND ITS
RELATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFO./  HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
STRONG AND AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT
MAY INCREASE WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA.  SWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY INHIBITION
LAYER EVIDENT AT MIA THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON.

...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/WRN VA...
THOUGH REGION REMAINS WITHIN MODIFIED WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AS
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD WARMING SURFACE TODAY. 
EXPECT ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.