[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230104
SWODY1
SPC AC 230102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
HUM 40 NE MCB 40 SSE UOX 35 WNW MEM 25 S POF 25 N PAH BWG 20 W TYS
35 ENE MCN 50 N AYS 30 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 NE GWO
35 WSW MEM 10 WNW ARG 20 NE POF MDH 10 ESE EVV 20 WNW SDF 30 SE LUK
15 WSW UNI 15 SSE PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 NNW SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45
SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED
10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...THE TN
VLY...DEEP SOUTH...AND PARTS OF THE SERN STATES...

...MID-SOUTH/TN VLY SWD INTO THE DEEP S...
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A TRIPLE POINT VCNTY KMEM WITH A DRYLINE SWD
THROUGH KJAN THEN TO SCNTRL LA.  TSTMS...INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS...FORMED EARLIER WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WERE JUXTAPOSED. 
MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE COMBINED WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VCNTY THE LOW HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. AIR MASS HAS ALSO DESTABILIZED FARTHER E AND N
ACROSS FAR SWRN KY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TN.  GIVEN THAT STRONG
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THESE
AREAS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL PROBABLY DECREASE. 
BUT...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

FARTHER S...TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING IN NE-SW ORIENTED ACCAS BANDS
ACROSS ECNTRL MS.  WATER VAPOR INDICATES ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VLY AND THE 8KM WRF/21Z ETAKF AND 21Z
RUC ALL SUGGEST THAT TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE NEWD INTO PARTS OF  AL
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT DOWNSTREAM IN
AL...BUT BUOYANCY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL PER THE 00Z BMX
SOUNDING.  THERE IS LIKELY A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
THE STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER WHERE
BUOYANCY IS GREATER.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS BACKED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND IF
STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD
ATOP THE COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NWRN GA AND ERN TN LATER
TONIGHT.

...NRN FL TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...
MOST OF THE SEVERE TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS EVENING
AS A WELL-DEFINED MCV ROTATES EWD FROM THE KSAV AREA.  OTHER STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY INTERCEPT THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE OFF OF FL AND WILL INTERRUPT THE COASTAL
BOUNDARY FROM RETURNING MUCH FARTHER NWD THAN IT IS CURRENTLY.

TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN FL OVERNIGHT.  NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SITUATED ACROSS NRN FL
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.  BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS THAT IT HAS DIMINISHED GIVEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE PASSING OFF INTO THE TN VLY.

FARTHER N...WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS
BROUGHT UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST W.R.T SEVERE POSSIBILITIES
LATER TONIGHT IN THE ERN CAROLINAS.  HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE ACROSS EXTREME ERN SC/NC OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
APPEARS THE INTERRUPTION OF MORE QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN AND
RESIDUAL COOL WEDGE WILL MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER.

..RACY.. 03/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.