[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230534
SWODY1
SPC AC 230533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 20
S ABY 25 WSW MCN 15 SSE RMG 20 ESE CSV 30 S 5I3 ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE VRB 15 SSW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW HQM 45 WNW PDT
60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 40 SW MCK 40 SW GCK 45 E TCC 30 N 4CR
50 SSW SOW 30 SSE PRC 30 NE DRA 35 NW TPH 55 SSE TVL 15 WNW MER MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 15 SE TOI
20 W GAD 50 SW BNA 30 SW EVV 25 SE HUF 25 NNW CMH 15 S MFD MGW 15
WNW MRB 40 NW ILG 20 W EWR 20 E POU 20 WNW PVD 10 NNW HYA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES
INCLUDING NRN/CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE OH VLY WED WITH ASSOCIATED
80-85 KT H5 JET WRAPPING EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MID-DAY. 
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-OH VLY AT 18Z
WITH A COLD FRONT SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CREST TO THE FL PNHDL. 
A SECOND LOW WILL FORM VCNTY KORF AND MOVE NEWD OFF DELMARVA BY
MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE
SERN COAST LATER AT NIGHT.

...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...
AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD...THE
PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS OVER AL WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WED MORNING.  AIR MASS IS
GRADUALLY RECOVERING IN WAKE OF TUE AFTN MCS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ATTM.  GIVEN
VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...ANY TSTM DURING THE MORNING COULD ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. 

DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET SHOULD THEN SPREAD INTO MUCH OF
THE CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N AS SRN VA IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS.  DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS H5
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL ATOP RESIDUAL UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS.  STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD
FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN VA/NC WED AFTN.  TSTMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND GIVEN THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
REGIME...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SWD EXTENT OF THE TSTM
POTENTIAL INTO SC AND GA DURING THE AFTN MAY BE LIMITED BY
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND THE TENDENCY FOR THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
VEER AS THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SERN VA...REDUCING MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.

...NRN AND CNTRL FL...
A SECONDARY REGION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL FL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF ONGOING STORMS.  THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR BEFORE 18Z GIVEN THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIFT
QUICKLY NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY.  HOWEVER...STORMS
WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN A BAND OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND GIVEN
THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME TSTM
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL FL AT ANY
TIME WED AFTN.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.