[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 222002
SWODY1
SPC AC 222001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
DAB 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 15 SSE PFN MAI 35 WNW ABY 25 SSW MCN 55
ESE MCN 30 WNW SAV 20 ESE SAV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
MIA 15 SW FMY ...CONT... 15 ESE LCH 35 SSW ESF 35 N ESF 25 SE ELD 30
S HOT 50 E FSM 10 NNW HRO 35 NW UNO 45 W MDH 45 WSW EVV 25 NE BWG 45
NNW TYS HKY 25 NNW SOP 20 ESE RWI 40 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 NE TXK
30 NW PGO 40 E OKC 35 S PNC 40 SSW EMP 10 ESE MKC 45 S UIN 20 N DNV
40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45
SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED
10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN TA INTO NRN
FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES...

...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SWRN SC
INTO SRN GA AND EXTREME SERN AL WHERE IT INTERSECTS A SQUALL LINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH SWRN GA. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF WARM FRONT WHERE
SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR.
THE LATEST VWP DATA SHOW LARGE HODOGRAPHS FROM NRN FL INTO SRN GA.
THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE WARM
SECTOR. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE FURTHER AUGMENTED AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT. REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL.



...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH WRN/MIDDLE TN AND AL...

AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN AR THEN BECOMES
A COLD FRONT ACROSS LA. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM ERN AR SWD INTO LA. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST E OF THESE BOUNDARIES. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER AR NEXT FEW HOURS
AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH SPREADS NEWD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 

A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO MS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES ALONG MOIST AXIS E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER E ACROSS AL...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED BY THE EARLIER MCS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE
HEATING COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER
W MAY ADVANCE EWD INTO AL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL/NRN AL WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN BACKED TO SSELY.

..DIAL.. 03/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.