[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221621
SWODY1
SPC AC 221619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
SSI 40 NNW DAB 35 NE MOB 40 ENE JAN 55 SW MEM 30 NNE MEM 15 SSW MKL
25 SSE ANB MCN 60 N AYS 25 SSE SSI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
LCH 20 SW HEZ FSM 30 SSW UMN 30 WNW POF 40 NE BWG 10 NNE LOZ 15 N
AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MIA 15 SW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 NE TXK
30 NW PGO 40 E OKC 35 S PNC 40 SSW EMP 10 ESE MKC 45 S UIN 20 N DNV
40 NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 45
SSE BKE 50 SSE BYI 25 WNW MLF 35 SSW BCE 45 N PRC 60 W PRC 35 SW EED
10 NNW TRM 15 E CZZ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR  CENTRAL AND NRN MS... SWRN
TN...MUCH OF AL...SRN GA AND NRN FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO TODAY FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AS LARGE AREA OF STRONG WSWLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVERSPREADS A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.  UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION AND INTO THE LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION BY LATE TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EITHER
COINCIDENT OR JUST AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH.  AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO CENTRAL AL/GA...WHILE COASTAL
FRONT LIFTS WNWWD ACROSS ERN GA/WRN SC.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRIMARY
WARM FRONT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC AND NC THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF NRN CA COAST MOVES
INLAND TODAY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO  NRN FL/GEORGIA...
WHILE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVES STEADILY EWD ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO
TODAY...STRONG 80-90 KT 500MB WIND MAX TRACKS FROM LA TO GA BY EARLY
TONIGHT.  WARM FRONT SHIFTING INLAND ON 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH
ASSOCIATED INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
COOL/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT HAS SPREAD EWD TO FL WILL
SUPPORT AN ARRAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SCENARIOS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

CURRENT ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE NOW MOVING INTO WRN AL DRIVEN BY THE
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX DRIVING
EWD FROM LA. IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE...SHEAR/HELICITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LINE AS WELL AS MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING NEWD AS THE
WARM FRONT SHIFT INLAND ACROSS NRN FL/SRN AL/GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AS HEATING OCCURS IN THE DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER
SYSTEM...REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR AS
AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS NRN AR BY MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS. IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL WITH THE STEEP COOL LAPSE RATES...THREAT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST.

...FL...

REF MCD 338

AIR MASS ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WAS POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE OVER
MUCH OF FL PENINSULA WITH UNUSUALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
7C/KM. WITH HEATING AND AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND
15-20 KT SFC-1KM SHEAR...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY  AT
LEAST THE NRN HALF OF PENINSULA.  IN ADDITION TO THE VERY LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CAROLINAS...
WARM FRONT SHIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO ERN
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING 60F DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS. 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE NEWD INTO CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER
JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF STATES...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR GIVEN THE JUST MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

...CA...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND CA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE 
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED HEATING POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE OBSERVED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THE 7C/KM COLD LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION
DURING AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WILL BE LINKED TO
THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTRAL VALLEY AS BARRIER FLOW BACKS
AND INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEST OF SIERRAS.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.